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Tuesday, June 30, 2020

The politics of wearing a mask hits Alabama's US Senate race as Doug Jones releases ad urging face covering - CNN

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The ad is the latest example of how Congress' response to the coronavirus pandemic has become a political issue. Jones is considered the most vulnerable incumbent Democratic senator in 2020.
"The Covid crisis has shown how our health depends on each other, on our neighbors, our loved ones, our co-workers," says Jones. "Wearing masks and social distancing is about protecting each other, our parents and grandparents, the friend who has diabetes or a heart condition we didn't know about, the front-line workers who put themselves at risk, and so our small businesses open safely and get our economy moving."
"We do this for each other," he adds at the end, while putting on a mask.
The Jones ad comes in the middle of a debate within the Republican Party over how to encourage Americans to be safe during the pandemic. The Jones campaign has booked the ad to air in the Montgomery media market this week, at a cost of about $226,000, according to the Campaign Media Analysis Group.
The mask has become a symbol of one's political allegiance during the pandemic, pitting some supporters of Trump against those who take the advice of health care experts. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Kentucky Republican, Sen. Lamar Alexander of Tennessee, the top Republican on the Senate Health Committee, and some top health care officials in the Trump administration have all encouraged wearing a mask as a way to slow the spread of Covid-19.
Alexander urged Trump on Tuesday to "just get rid of this mask politics," adding that "it hurts the country and it doesn't help him." Alexander, who is retiring after this term, said the debate "makes no sense" because Trump supporters would help the President win reelection if they wore masks to contain the disease and reopen the economy sooner.
If the Trump administration isn't requiring masks, who is?
"If you're pro-Trump, you don't wear a mask, and if you're anti-Trump, you're more likely to wear a mask," he said. "But that makes no sense."
Trump has continued to defy health experts' recommendations and shown reluctance to wear a mask in public, telling the Wall Street Journal it is "a double-edged sword" that could make people more likely to get infected since wearers fidget with them and could get a false sense of security. The President also suggested that some masks are worn as an expression of opposition to him.
Vice President Mike Pence was asked on Tuesday if the Trump administration is delivering inconsistent public health messaging. "The President has worn a mask in public, as have I, and you've heard a strong encouragement about mask wearing," he responded. "But let me say we believe that Americans should wear a mask whenever state and local authorities indicate that it's appropriate, or whenever social distancing is not possible. And we'll continue to convey that message."
Overall, 65% of adults say they have worn masks "in stores or other businesses all or most of the time in the past month," according to a recent Pew Research Center study. But only 49% of conservative Republicans said they have worn them "all or most of the time in the past month," compared with 60% of moderate Republicans and 83% of liberal Democrats.
Alabama Republican Party Chair Terry Lathan told CNN that she wears a mask "whenever possible in public," but that "this topic will find folks on both sides of the debate."
"My biggest observation is there seems to be a lot of mask shaming that adds more division," she wrote in an email. "People are watching the data, updates and the Covid situation. They are making their own decisions. The time spent on the mask wars is probably interesting to many but does it change any minds? There is nothing wrong with reminders on wearing masks, but it's eventually the individual's choice."
Lathan said the Jones ad is a "good mask public service announcement" but that it omits Jones' voting record, which she said strikes against the will of the majority of Alabamians, including voting to remove the President after his impeachment, against the confirmation of now-Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh and against the 2017 tax overhaul bill that passed the Senate on a party-line vote.
"He can't mask these facts in the highest-approval-rated Trump state in the nation," she added.
'It would help' if Trump wore a mask, GOP health committee leader says
Jones is running in a state that Trump won in 2016 by nearly 30 points. In 2017, Jones beat Roy Moore, a twice-defrocked state Supreme Court justice accused of sexually assaulting teenagers, by a point and a half. He'll face a tougher opponent in 2020. On July 14, former Attorney General Jeff Sessions, who held the Senate seat for 20 years, faces former Auburn University football coach Tommy Tuberville, who boasts Trump's endorsement, in the Republicans' primary runoff election. The Jones, Sessions and Tuberville campaigns did not respond to requests for comment about the new ad.
In the absence of a state mandate and amid a rise in cases, some cities and counties in Alabama have issued stricter guidance. In Jefferson County, the home of Birmingham and the most populous county in the state, a mandatory face-covering order reportedly went into effect on Monday.

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Coronavirus spikes and political risks won't wreck the new bull market, Tony Dwyer predicts - CNBC

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Market bull Tony Dwyer sees more wild swings as the year's second half kicks off due to a spike in coronavirus cases and growing odds of a Joe Biden presidency. 

But it's not weighing on his optimism.

"The resurgence of the virus in the southern states and the lead by Joe Biden in the polls is probably pulling forward some of that volatility that may have happened later in the year," the Canaccord Genuity chief market strategist told CNBC's "Trading Nation" on Tuesday.  "We want to use that to add a little bit of risk incrementally."

Near-term, Dwyer believes stocks are in the consolidation phase within a new bull market.

He contends the market is in a much better position than it was in March when the virus began raging. According to Dwyer, the big difference now is the Federal Reserve's unprecedented policy support.

"The Fed has made it very clear they are going to continue to print money to support the credit market until they get their dual mandate of full employment and 2% core inflation," he said. "That's not going to be for a while."

As for politics, Dwyer believes the market will adjust. If Biden wins the White House, he speculates the Fed will offset potential tax cut rollbacks by getting even more aggressive.

The backdrop drove Dwyer to upgrade his S&P 500 12-to-18-month target to 3,300-plus from 3,000 this week. The move reflects a 6.5% minimum gain from Tuesday's close, as the index wrapped up its best quarter since 1998.

"It sounds kind of weird. What does plus mean? The reason is I have no idea what valuation to use when I have an unlimited printing press," he said. 

His bull case reflects successful efforts to contain the coronavirus and the continued extreme Fed support.

"On weakness as we see as volatility, we want to be buying those economic reopening areas because of this Fed stimulus," he added. "Once you turn the light switch on, once there is a vaccine, it's going to create an environment where you're going to have rapid economic activity."

And, that's why Dwyer is targeting cyclical areas of the market.

"It's simply the post-recession trade," Dwyer said. "What typically happens coming out of a recession is that you want to be long [in the] the economic reopening areas like the financials, the industrials, the materials [and] the consumer discretionary."

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Stock Market: The Coming Excitement, And How To Invest In It - Forbes

Rising Case Counts And The Rising Market: What’s Going On? - Forbes

Stock market closes out best quarter since 1998 with more gains - syracuse.com

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Wall Street capped its best quarter since 1998 Tuesday with more gains, a fitting end to a stunning three months for investors as the market screamed back toward its record heights after a torrid plunge.

The S&P 500 climbed 1.5%, bringing its gain for the quarter to nearly 20%. That rebound followed a 20% drop in the first three months of the year, the market’s worst quarter since the 2008 financial crisis. The plunge came as the coronavirus pandemic ground the economy to a halt and millions of people lost their jobs.

“It’s the first time you’ve had back-to-back (quarters) like this since the 1930s,” said Willie Delwiche, investment strategist at Baird. “It’s pretty unprecedented.”

The whiplash that ripped through markets in the second quarter came as investors looked beyond dire unemployment numbers and became increasingly hopeful that the economy can pull out of its severe, sudden recession relatively quickly. The hopes looked prescient after reports during the quarter showed that employers resumed hiring again and retail sales rebounded as governments relaxed lockdown orders meant to slow the spread of the coronavirus.

The quarter’s gains were ignited by promises of massive amounts of aid from the Federal Reserve and Congress. Low interest rates generally push investors toward stocks and away from the low payments made by bonds, and the Federal Reserve has pinned short-term interest rates at their record low of nearly zero.

But most of Wall Street says not to expect anything close to a repeat of the rocking second quarter. A rise in infections has several states pausing their lifting of restrictions. The surge in confirmed new cases, which has prompted the European Union to bar U.S. travelers from entry, is seeding doubts that the economic recovery can happen as quickly as markets had forecast. That helps explain why the market’s momentum cooled somewhat in June.

On Tuesday Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious-disease expert, warned that the number of daily new reported infections could surge to 100,000 if Americans don’t start following public health recommendations.

Beyond the coronavirus, analysts also point to the upcoming U.S. elections and other risks that could upset markets. If Democrats sweep Congress and the White House, which many investors see as at least possible, it could mean higher tax rates, which could weaken corporate profits.

The S&P 500 gained 47.05 points to 3,100.29 on Tuesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 217.08 points, or 0.9%, to 25,812.88. It had briefly been down 120 points. The Nasdaq composite climbed 184.61 points, or 1.9%, to 10,058.77.

The S&P 500 has rallied back to within nearly 8.4% of its record set in February, after being down nearly 34% in late March. At one point earlier this month, it had climbed as close as 4.5%.

Technology, health care and financial companies powered much of the market’s broad gains Friday. The buying accelerated after a report showed stronger-than-expected improvement in consumer confidence this month.

“Broadly speaking, the market is reacting to economic data that is better than expected,” said Brent Schutte, chief investment strategist at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management.

Schutte said the market is being supported by the likelihood that there won’t be a nationwide shutdown again, aggressive monetary policy and hopes for a vaccine sooner rather than later. “The path of least resistance is still two steps forward, one step back,” he said.

The quarter featured steady gains in technology stocks, which climbed 27.6%, second only to the consumer discretionary sector's 30.2% gain. And airlines and cruise operators traded wildly after being battered for much of the first quarter.

Apple, once again the most valuable company in the S&P 500, gained 43.5% for the second quarter, American Airlines climbed 7.2% for the quarter, while Royal Caribbean Cruises vaulted 56.4%. Still, they each remain down nearly 60% for the year.

Crude oil had a similar rebound as stocks through the second quarter, though it’s still well below where it was before the pandemic struck. Energy companies mounted a solid comeback, with three of them — Apache, Halliburton and Marathon Oil — showing the biggest percentage gains in the S&P 500 for the quarter.

A barrel of U.S. crude oil slid 43 cents to settle at $39.27 Tuesday, but it’s still nearly double where it was at the end of the first quarter. It’s also in a different world from April, when prices in one corner of the U.S. crude market briefly went below zero amid worries that collapsing demand would leave nowhere to store all the unused oil. Brent crude oil fell 56 cents to settle at $41.15 a barrel.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 0.66% from 0.63% late Monday. It too has rallied back from its lows when recession worries were at their height. It set a record low in March when it briefly dipped below 0.50%, according to Tradeweb. The yield tends to move with investors' expectations for the economy and inflation.

European stocks closed mixed, and Asian markets finished higher.

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Peralez: Rushed 'strong mayor' initiative is politics at its worst - San José Spotlight - San José Spotlight

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Today a constitutional convention will take place, proposing changing how people are represented and how government operates. A frenzy of proposals contemplating complex restructuring, an extension of current leaders’ term-limited time in office, the value of neighborhood representation, consolidation of power and increasing voter participation will be considered in a 12-hour political showdown.

This affront to thoughtful governance is not going to occur in some far off land under a dictator, it will happen here in San José.

Only 11 out of 1.1 million people will debate the future of San JosĂ© with no public process, vetting or outreach. Contemplating the next chapter of our city’s future is a good thing, but only if we make it a community conversation.

A nearly year long community-led effort manifested itself into the Fair Elections Initiative intended to increase voter participation by aligning the mayor’s election to the presidential cycle, and give constituents an equal voice in government by limiting campaign contributions from special interests. The initiative received endorsements from several regional leaders, including myself, but despite widespread community outreach and receiving over 66,776 valid signatures, it fell short of the November ballot by merely 2,248 signatures.

Conversely, just over a week ago, as hopes of the Fair Elections Initiative were fading, Mayor Sam Liccardo proposed a political compromise to place a watered down version of the Fair Elections Initiative on the ballot while changing the structure of our government and expanding his own powers. He suggested making “modest but long overdue changes,” although he conveniently omitted what those modest changes were.

Since then, five different memos from councilmembers, all submitted within the last week, have provided clarity — clear as mud — on what those changes should be. These memoranda are all over the place, and include changes that would give the mayor hiring, firing and veto authority, and extend his term by two years without an election by the people.

The Fair Elections Initiative professed that democracy should be for all of us and not just special interests, and that “Democracy works best when it reflects all our voices, no matter what we look like or what’s in our wallets.” Yet this “unfair elections and strong mayor initiative” has blatantly excluded the community. Now that the Fair Elections Initiative failed to qualify for the ballot, we have a rushed effort to cobble together a compromise with no community input.

Less than a year ago, Mayor Liccardo vehemently spoke out against and voted down a council-led effort to align the mayor’s election to the presidential cycle. Yet today somehow we are to believe he simply had a change of heart. I call foul. What we have here is government and politics at its worst.

Springing these significant changes upon our community is insulting and demonstrates a lack of consideration for true community engagement. The mayor suggests that recent community demands are justification for his proposal, but we haven’t heard anyone demanding our mayor should have these added powers or an additional two years in office.

None of these recommendations require immediate action, they won’t resolve current community concerns and there is no reason to bypass a true community process before going to the ballot. A measure to move the mayor’s race to align with the 2024 presidential election can still be proposed in the future by the council or through another community effort and does not need to be decided today.

How can we remedy this? Simple. Slow down and honestly engage the community before placing anything on the ballot.

Since 1915 every time we changed or attempted to change the structure of our City Council or the power and structure of our government, a Charter Revision Commission was formed to allow for robust community engagement lasting typically over one year before anything was placed on a ballot. The currently proposed charter changes gave the public one week, during a pandemic, over Zoom, to weigh in.

Mayor Liccardo pretends to support community engagement through the creation of a Blue Ribbon Commission to study the reforms, and report on the effectiveness or need for modifications after placing the initiative on the ballot — any recommended changes at that point would require funding another ballot initiative for voter approval.

Not once, in changing the structure of our government, or any other charter amendment, have we recklessly made the changes and then created a commission and community engagement process afterward to clean up our mistakes. Reckless is how you describe making policy with no process. Shameful is how you describe asking a community to clean up mistakes in policies you rushed in making.

The rushed nature of these proposals significantly stifles community voices and eliminates equitable participation. This is not good governance, it falls below our standards of transparency and lacks the engagement our community deserves.

Raul Peralez is a San Jose councilmember first elected in 2014 to represent District 3, which spans downtown San Jose.

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Dow rallies more than 200 points to close out its best quarter since 1987 - CNBC

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Stocks rose broadly on Tuesday as Wall Street wrapped up its best quarterly performance in decades. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 217.08 points, or 0.9%, to close at 25,812.88. The S&P 500 gained 1.5% to end the day at 3,100.29 and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.9%. to 10,058.77. The major averages hit their session high with less than an hour left in the session.

The 30-stock Dow ended the second quarter with a 17.8% gain. That's the average's biggest quarterly rally since the first quarter of 1987, when it popped 21.6%. The S&P 500 had its biggest one-quarter surge since the fourth quarter of 1998, soaring nearly 20%. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite jumped 30.6% for the quarter, its best quarterly performance since gain 1999.

"A combination of 1) Stimulus, 2) Positive trends in the virus, 3) Economic reopenings and 4) Hopes for a vaccine drove stocks higher in Q2," wrote Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report. "As we begin Q3, only one of those tailwinds is currently in place: Stimulus. That doesn't mean we'll see a correction, but be suspect of market rallies until we can add more forces supporting stocks, because we're one stimulus disappointment away from an ugly day."

Shares of Facebook and Netflix rose more than 2% each to lead the gains Tuesday while Amazon advanced 2.9%. Micron also contributed to the gains, climbing more than 4% following the company's better-than-expected earnings report. Micron also gave strong forward revenue guidance. Shares of Lululemon gained 6% on news it will acquire at-home fitness company Mirror for $500 million. 

Tuesday was also the last day of the month, with the major averages posting their third consecutive monthly gain. The Dow was up 1.7% for June. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 1.8% and 6%, respectively, month to date. 

"It's difficult to see the market continue the way it has been throughout the summer," said Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial. She noted the market could become increasingly volatile if the number of coronavirus cases keeps rising and if some of the proposed virus treatments and vaccine fail. "That's not only going to impact the biotechnology companies, but the broader market as well."

Wall Street was coming off sharp gains, with the Dow surging more than 500 points on Monday. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq also rallied more than 1%.

Powell, Mnuchin testify

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin testified before the House Financial Services Committee. The joint hearing addressed the Fed and Treasury's response to the coronavirus pandemic.

In remarks he delivered Tuesday, Powell said uncertainty reigns over the outlook for the economy in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic. 

"Output and employment remain far below their pre-pandemic levels. The path forward for the economy is extraordinarily uncertain and will depend in large part on our success in containing the virus," Powell said. "A full recovery is unlikely until people are confident that it is safe to reengage in a broad range of activities."

"The path forward will also depend on the policy actions taken at all levels of government to provide relief and to support the recovery for as long as needed," Powell added. 

Meanwhile, Mnuchin told Congress the economy is in a strong position to recover from the coronavirus. 

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Here are your odds the stock market will be higher on Dec. 31 - MarketWatch

Stock market live updates: Stocks mixed, best quarter since 1998, Micron jumps - CNBC

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New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) building is seen with the Fearless Girl Statue during Covid-19 pandemic in Lower Manhattan, New York City, United States on May 26, 2020.

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This is a live blog. Please check back for updates.

9:57 am: Inovio hasn't provided critical data on its results, Stat says

Inovio Pharmaceuticals has not provided data needed to determine whether its vaccine is working, Stat, a medical news website reported Tuesday. The company put out a press release Tuesday morning claiming positive results in an early clinical trial, but it did not disclose how many patients produced antibodies that fight the coronavirus, the Stat report said. Inovio also said its vaccine candidate has been selected to participate in study as part of the government's Operation Warp Speed, aimed at fast-tracking development of vaccines. Inovio stock is up nearly 800% year to date. It was down about 7% in trading on Wednesday morning. - Lewis

9:30 am: Stocks open last trading day of the quarter in the red

Stocks moved lower on Tuesday, the last trading day of the month, the quarter, and the first half of 2020. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 87 points, for a loss of 0.3%. The S&P 500 was down 0.10%, while the Nasdaq Composite slid 0.06%. Still, the record rebound from March's low has the major averages on track for their best quarter in years. The Dow and S&P are on pace to post their largest quarterly gains since 1998, while the Nasdaq is on track for its best quarter since 2001. – Stevens

9:25 am: Investors must stay 'cautious and selective,' says portfolio manager

Katerina Simonetti, senior portfolio manager at UBS Private Wealth Management, said that with the number of Covid-19 cases rising, there's considerable uncertainty in the market and investors therefore need to be "cautious and selective" going forward. She believes volatility will persist for several months, and that risk-averse investors should consider diversifying their portfolios by adding gold. "We see opportunities in companies that enable and benefit from digital transformation, e-commerce, fintech, genetic therapies and food. Companies in factory automation and robotics are also set to benefit, as industrial firms are planning to shorten global supply chains," she said. UBS' base case forecast sees the S&P 500 trading around 3,300 by December. – Stevens

9:07 am: Inovio shares slip despite promising drug trial results

Stock of Inovio Pharmaceuticals was down more than 12% in early morning trading after the biotechnology company said its coronavirus vaccine candidate showed positive results in early clinical trials. Additionally, its vaccine candidate, INO-4800, has been selected to participate in a non-human primate study as part of the government's Operation Warp Speed, aimed at fast-tracking development of vaccines. Inovio stock is up more than 860% year to date. - Lewis

9:01 am: Goldman Sachs says a mask mandate could save economy from a 5% hit

8:51 am: Conagra jumps following quarterly beat

Shares of Conagra Brands jumped more than 3% during premarket trading after the company's fourth quarter results beat analyst estimates. The food producer posted a quarterly profit of 75 cents per share on an adjusted basis, which was nine cents ahead of estimates. Revenue also topped expectations, and the company gave upbeat guidance as the coronavirus pandemic has led to elevated demand. Shares have gained 19% in the last three months. - Stevens

8:07 am: Some banks stay silent on capital plans, dividends

On Monday night, major banks announced their dividend plans and stress capital buffers following the Federal Reserve's stress test. However, some smaller banks have not reported their plans. PNC Financial has not filed  an update with the Securities and Exchange Commission, according to the regulator's website. Capital One reported its stress capital buffer but did not mention dividends in the press release. —Pound 

7:49 am: Powell and Mnuchin to testify before the House Financial Services Committee

Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will testify before the House Financial Services Committee at 12:30 p.m. on Tuesday. The joint hearing will address the Fed and Treasury's response to the coronavirus pandemic. In remarks prepared ahead of the hearing, Powell said that despite a recent uptick in economic activity as lockdown measures are eased across the world's largest economy, the outlook is "extraordinarily uncertain" and will rely on both containing the virus and government support for the recovery. "A full recovery is unlikely until people are confident that it is safe to reengage in a broad range of activities," Powell said. "The path forward will also depend on the policy actions taken at all levels of government to provide relief and to support the recovery for as long as needed." –Li

7:46 am: Wells Fargo down, other banks move higher following capital plan announcements

7:38 am: Biden tells donors he will scrap most of Trump's tax cuts

7:35 am: Market's month & quarter in review

It's the final trading day of June, and the final trading day of the second quarter. Here's where the market stands.

  • The Dow is up 0.84% this month, on pace for its third positive month in a row
  • The Dow is up 16.78% this quarter, on pace for its best quarterly performance since the fourth quarter of 1998 when it gained 17.07%, and fifth positive quarter in six
  • For the first half of 2020 the Dow is down 10.31%
  • The S&P 500 is up 0.29% this month, on pace for its third positive month in a row
  • The S&P is up 18.13% this quarter, on pace for its best quarterly performance since the fourth quarter of 1998 when it gained 20.87%, and fifth positive quarter in six
  • For the first half of 2020 the S&P is down 5.5%
  • The Nasdaq Composite is up 4.05% this month, on pace for its third straight positive month
  • The Nasdaq Composite is up 28.23% this quarter, on pace for its best quarterly performance since the fourth quarter of 2001 when it gained 30.13%, and second positive quarter in three
  • The Nasdaq Composite is up 10.05% for the first half of 2020
  • The Russell 2,000 is up 1.95% this month, on pace for its third positive month in a row 
  • The Russell 2,000 is up 23.25% this quarter, on pace for its best quarterly performance since the first quarter of 1991 when it gained 29.37%, and second positive quarter in three
  • The Russell 2,000 is down 14.82% this year    
  • Seven out of 11 sectors are negative for June, led to the downside by utilities. Tech is the best performer
  • All 11 sectors are positive for the quarter, led by consumer discretionary, which is up 30.32% and on pace for its best quarterly performance ever
  • For the year, nine out of 11 sectors are negative, led to the downside by energy, which has shed 38.38%. Tech is the top performer after gaining 12.06%. – Hayes, Stevens

7:30 am: Micron shares jump after earnings

Micron traded more than 5% higher in the premarket after the chip manufacturer posted better-than-expected results for the previous quarter. The company posted an adjusted profit of 82 cents per share, topping a Refinitiv estimate of 77 cents. Revenues rose to $5.44 billion, beating an estimate of $5.31 billion. Micron also issued better-than-expected revenue guidance for the current quarter. —Imbert

7:25 am: China says its manufacturing sector expanded in June

Chinas's official Purchasing Manager's Index came in at 50.9 for June, beating expectations and showing a growing sector. The expectation was for a reading of 50.4, according to economists polled by Reuters. In PMIs, readings above 50 represent expansion. A private survey PMI from Caixin and IHS Markit is scheduled to be released later this week. — Pound, Tan

7:20 am: FedEx rises ahead of earnings

Shares of FedEx rose 1% in premarket trading as the company prepares to release its fourth quarter earnings results after the market closes on Tuesday. According to consensus estimates from FactSet, analysts are expecting the company to earn $1.58 per share on $16.41 billion in revenue. In a recent note to clients UBS said it's expecting a "very weak" report for the shipping company, although the firm still has a buy rating on the stock.  "FDX's potential for multi-year margin improvement and EPS growth can make it attractive to investors," UBS said. Shares of FedEx are down 11% this year. – Stevens 

7:20 am: Stock futures flat

Stock futures pointed to a flat open in early trading Tuesday following a strong rally in the previous session. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dipped 40 points, implying a loss of 10 points at the open. S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures traded just below the flat line. Tuesday's session marks the last day of June and the second quarter. Investors will monitor Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin's testimony before the House Financial Services Committee at 12:30 p.m.— Li

— CNBC's Fred Imbert, Christopher Hayes, Thomas Franck, Al Lewis and Huileng Tan contributed reporting.

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5 things to know before the stock market opens Tuesday - CNBC

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1. Dow set for lower open after 580-point surge

Ahead of the last trading day in June and the second quarter, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was on track for an almost 16.8% quarterly advance, which would be the best quarter since Q4 1998. The Dow was pacing for a nearly 1% increase in June, which would be the third straight positive month. However, year to date, the Dow was still down 10% as of Monday's close.

In prepared remarks for Tuesday afternoon's House Financial Services Committee hearing, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said big questions remain over the outlook for the economy, particularly in light of ongoing efforts to contain the pandemic.

Nearly all of the largest U.S. banks said Monday they performed well enough on the Fed's most-recent stress test to maintain their current quarterly dividends. However, Wells Fargo said the Fed's assessment of its business will warrant a reduction to its quarterly payout.

2. Fauci, other top U.S. health officials to testify

Dr. Anthony Fauci, Director of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, testifies during a House Energy and Commerce Committee hearing on the Trump Administration's Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic, on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC on Tuesday, June 23, 2020.

Kevin Dietsch | Pool via Reuters

White House health advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci and top U.S. health agency leaders are set to testify Tuesday morning before the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, one day after a CDC official said  the coronavirus is spreading too rapidly and too broadly for the U.S. to bring it under control. On Monday, the head of the World Health Organization said that despite progress in many countries "globally, the pandemic is actually speeding up" and "the worst is yet to come" as many nations and world leaders remain divided on how to combat the virus. Total worldwide cases now number more than 10.3 million, including over 505,500 deaths. A quarter of the infections and fatalities were in the U.S.

3. States walk back or delay reopening plans

A sign asking consumers not to move tables or chairs to maintain social distancing is displayed at the Arrowhead Towne Center on June 20, 2020 in Glendale, Arizona.

Christian Petersen | Getty Images

As coronavirus cases surge in Southern and Western states, more governors are walking back or delaying reopening plans. Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey on Monday shut down bars, movie theaters, gyms and water parks. Arizona is not alone in its reversal. States including Texas, Florida and California are backtracking, closing beaches and bars in some cases. Oregon Gov. Kate Brown and Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly are ordering people to wear masks or face coverings when social distancing cannot be maintained. The city of Jacksonville, Florida, where mask-averse President Donald Trump plans to accept the Republican nomination in August, is also implementing a face-covering order.

4. NJ governor delays indoor dining, NY governor announces mall requirements

A "CLOSED USA" sign on May 4, 2020 on the Jersey Shore in New Jersey.

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In the Northeast, hard hit earlier this year but not seeing new surges, New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy announced Monday the state will delay a resumption of indoor dining that was planned for Thursday. New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced that shopping malls in the state will be required to have virus-filtering air conditioning systems in place in order to reopen. AMC is pushing back the reopening date for its theaters to July 30. Previously, the company had planned on starting to reopen theaters in mid-July in time for the releases of "Tenet" and "Mulan," both of which have been delayed into August.

5. China's Xi Jinping signs Hong Kong security law

Police stand guard on a road to deter pro-democracy protesters from blocking roads in the Mong Kok district of Hong Kong on May 27, 2020.

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Chinese President Xi Jinping has signed the Hong Kong national security law, state media reported Tuesday. Few details have been unveiled, but Beijing said the legislation is aimed at prohibiting secession, subversion of state power, terrorism activities and foreign interference. It's unclear when it will take effect. When the law was proposed last month, it reignited protests in Hong Kong. Critics see the security law as a way to undermine the autonomy promised to Hong Kong for 50 years after it was handed over from the U.K. to China on July 1, 1997. Wednesday marks the anniversary of the handover.

— The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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European stocks opened lower on Tuesday, with London outpacing other markets, as the coronavirus outbreak has continued to spread in the United States and has proved stubbornly persistent elsewhere.

The FTSE 100 stock index was down 0.7 percent at midmorning, after Britain reported worse-than-expected revised economic data for the first three months of this year. Investors were awaiting more details from Boris Johnson, the British prime minister, on his plan to spend on public works and other projects to get the economy back on track.

Other major European markets were modestly lower. The muted opening occurred despite a strong day in the Asia-Pacific region, where markets in Japan, mainland China and Australia ended more than 1 percent higher.

Futures markets were predicting Wall Street would open slightly lower later on Tuesday. In other signs of waning optimism, prices for U.S. Treasury bonds rose, while oil prices were down slightly on futures markets.

Investors awaited developments as states like Florida and Arizona extended their outbreak containment steps and other efforts, signaling that the coronavirus could continue to hold back the United States, home of the world’s largest economy.

They were also watching tense relations between the United States and China, after Beijing imposed a new national security law on the Asian financial capital of Hong Kong without releasing the text or details. American officials on Monday outlined new restrictions on selling technology to Hong Kong, citing Beijing’s growing meddling in the affairs of the semiautonomous territory.

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Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, planned to tell lawmakers on Tuesday that the U.S. economy was bouncing back but that the path ahead remained dependent on the virus and the action of policymakers.

“We have entered an important new phase and have done so sooner than expected,” Mr. Powell said in remarks prepared for delivery to the House financial services committee. He will note that consumer spending rebounded “strongly,” but will warn that the outlook is “extraordinarily uncertain” and hinges on whether efforts to contain the pandemic succeed.

“The path forward will also depend on the policy actions taken at all levels of government to provide relief and to support the recovery for as long as needed,” Mr. Powell planned to say.

The Fed has worked to shore up markets and the economy as the pandemic tossed millions out of work and starved businesses of revenue. The agency has cut interest rates to near zero, bought huge quantities of government-backed debt and rolled out a series of emergency lending programs.

Mr. Powell’s testimony on Tuesday is meant to focus on those emergency efforts, which are backed by funding Congress earmarked as part of its coronavirus economic response package. Mr. Powell will describe the programs, most of which have seen fairly limited uptake as financial conditions have calmed, and as the private market or other government programs have met credit demand.

One notable exception is the Fed’s Paycheck Protection Program loan facility, which takes the government’s small-business loans off banks’ balance sheets to give the institutions room to continue lending. That program holds about $65 billion in outstanding loans, he is set to say, a sign that banks and other lenders have made use of the facility. — Jeanna Smialek

Credit...Charles Rex Arbogast/Associated Press

Uber has made a takeover offer to buy Postmates, the upstart delivery service, according to three people familiar with the matter, as the on-demand food delivery market consolidates and Uber looks for new ways to make money.

The two companies could reach a deal as early as Monday evening, according to the people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to do so publicly. The talks are still going on, the people cautioned, and any potential for a deal could fall apart.

Representatives of Uber and Postmates declined to comment.

Uber held merger talks this year with Grubhub, a food delivery competitor. But those talks fell apart after the two companies could not come to agreement on a price, two people familiar with the matter said. Grubhub was eventually bought by Just Eats, a European food delivery service, for $7.3 billion in June.

Shortly after the Grubhub deal fell through, Uber began to piece together a potential offer for Postmates, one of the few stand-alone American companies in food delivery.

Postmates also held sale talks with DoorDash and Grubhub over the past year, according to two people with knowledge of the situation, who declined to be identified because the talks were private. — Mike Isaac and Erin Griffith

Credit...Olga R. Rodriguez/Associated Press

Wells Fargo said its shareholders will get a smaller dividend from the company in the third quarter after the Federal Reserve told the bank it had to hang on to additional capital to protect itself from uncertainties caused by the pandemic.

Last week, the Fed warned the country’s biggest banks not to increase cash payouts to shareholders for the third quarter, which begins next month, citing instability created by the coronavirus outbreak. On Monday, Wells Fargo said it expected to reduce its dividend from its current level, $0.51 per share, when it reports second-quarter results on July 14. It was the only big bank to announce a reduced dividend; the others, including Citigroup, Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase, are leaving theirs unchanged.

The Fed’s warning of looming uncertainty was reiterated by another regulator, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, which warned in a report on Monday that the pandemic had created so much extra work for banks that they were at risk of falling down on basic requirements like reporting customer activity to credit bureaus and rooting out fraud.

The regulator, which oversees the country’s largest banks, released the report as part of its routine assessments of the industry. It said programs created by Congress to try to prop up the economy, including a $650 billion aid package for small businesses that was structured as a series of forgivable loans, put special stresses on banks just as they were grappling with volatile financial market conditions and widespread lockdowns that forced many of their employees to work from home.

“This could cause breakdowns in controls related to account management, servicing management, flood insurance coverage, credit bureau reporting and complying with applicable laws and regulations,” the report said.

The regulator also warned banks to keep a close eye on loans to homes and businesses that could be in jeopardy because of the economic shutdown caused by the pandemic, and to watch out for fraudsters looking to take advantage of the sudden shift to working from home to find weaknesses in banks’ security systems. — Emily Flitter

  • Norwegian Air, the once-fast-growing low-cost carrier, said on Monday it had canceled orders with Boeing for 92 737 Max jets and five 787 Dreamliners, adding to mounting cancellations for the aerospace giant. Norwegian, which temporarily laid off 90 percent of its staff in March, also said it was seeking compensation for the losses it incurred from the grounding of the Max and from engine troubles associated with the Dreamliners.

  • Broadway will remain dark for at least the rest of this year, and many shows are signaling that they do not expect a return to the stage until late winter or early spring. The Broadway League said on Monday that theater owners and producers were ready to refund or exchange tickets purchased for shows through Jan. 3. But the league said it was not ready to specify a date when shows would reopen.

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Abortion decision puts chief justice who wants to avoid politics at the center of a political debate - The Boston Globe

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“The legal doctrine of stare decisis requires us, absent special circumstances, to treat like cases alike,” John Roberts wrote, adding, “Louisiana’s law cannot stand under our precedents.”Leah Millis/Associated Press

WASHINGTON — Four years ago, when the Supreme Court struck down parts of a Texas law that had reduced the number of abortion providers in the state by half, Chief Justice John Roberts joined a blistering dissent.

Yet on Monday, when the court issued its opinion in a similar case on abortion restrictions in Louisiana, the conservative jurist surprisingly sided with his four liberal colleagues in ruling that the Louisiana limitations had to fall, too.

Roberts’s apparent about-face did not come from a change of heart about the legality of abortion restrictions — he wrote in his concurrence opinion that he still thinks he was right in the Texas case — but because of his commitment to a doctrine that can seem out of fashion in the era of President Trump: the power of precedent.

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“The legal doctrine of stare decisis requires us, absent special circumstances, to treat like cases alike,” Roberts wrote, adding, “Louisiana’s law cannot stand under our precedents.”

It was the biggest abortion case of Trump’s presidency so far and a profound disappointment to conservatives who hoped that a Supreme Court freshly stocked with two of his hand-picked justices would uphold state laws sharply restricting or essentially making abortion inaccessible. What’s more, it followed two other cases in recent weeks — one on immigration, the other on gay and transgender rights — in which Roberts infuriated Trump by joining the four liberal justices to uphold protections that had once seemed destined to fall in a court with a 5-4 conservative majority.

“I have urged caution about whether he is the swing vote, but I think the evidence of that is mounting,” said Stephen Wermiel, a professor of constitutional law at American University. “But it also important to keep in mind that if he is a swing vote, he is the most conservative swing vote we have seen in decades.”

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Roberts’s decisions in the abortion and immigration cases were not sweeping defenses of liberal principals but narrow and technical. They have made him a swing vote that neither side on America’s political battlefield feels they can fully trust — a factor that could catapult the future of the court to the fore of the presidential election.

Republicans are already seizing on Roberts’s willingness to uphold precedents they disagree with as one more reason to back Trump and give him the likely opportunity to nominate at least one more justice in the next four years. Democrats say treasured protections and bigger questions about abortion are still not safe if Roberts is the swing vote, and on Monday they were moving to motivate voters around the issue.

Roberts himself has become something he has always tried hard not to be: fodder for a political debate, at the very moment when he seems to be working hard to insulate the court from charges that it has become too politicized.

“He more than any other justice in recent memory cares a great deal about the court as an institution and its appearance of being above politics,” said Michael Dorf, a professor at Cornell Law School.

Roberts, 65, was nominated to the Supreme Court by President George W. Bush in 2005, and Democrats such as Massachusetts Senator Edward M. Kennedy said they were troubled by his writing on issues including voting rights. During his confirmation hearings, Roberts promised he had “no agenda” and “no platform” and vowed to protect the independence of the court.

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He also emphasized the importance of the very precedents he referred to on Monday.

“It is always a jolt to the legal system when you overrule a precedent,” he said, explaining that “precedent plays an important role in promoting stability and even-handedness.”

Trump made the judiciary a centerpiece of his 2016 presidential campaign, even taking the unusual step of releasing a list of deeply conservative possible Supreme Court nominees to boost his bonafides with evangelicals and other social conservatives. Last week, the Senate confirmed his 200th federal judicial nominee. Among those are two conservative justices on the Supreme Court: Neil Gorsuch, who wrote the majority opinion in the gay and transgender rights decision, and Brett Kavanaugh, who was confirmed despite allegations of sexual assault that turned his confirmation process into a bitter partisan brawl.

But Roberts has sharply pushed back on the idea that Trump can ever fully remake the judiciary in his own image. In 2018, Trump lambasted a decision by US District Court Judge Jon S. Tigar that blocked his administration’s attempt to stop accepting some asylum claims, calling him a “Obama judge.” Roberts responded with an unusual public rebuke.

“We do not have Obama judges or Trump judges, Bush judges or Clinton judges,” he said. “What we have is an extraordinary group of dedicated judges doing their level best to do equal right to those appearing before them. That independent judiciary is something we should all be thankful for.”

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Roberts also rebuked Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer, a Democrat, after he said this year that Gorsuch and Kavanaugh would “pay the price” if they eroded abortion protections.

Roberts spent much of his early career in conservative political circles, but he avoids talk of politics. He clerked for Supreme Court Justice William Rehnquist, who was nominated by President Nixon, and worked in the administrations of both Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush.

“Everybody who knew him in his pre-judicial career characterized him as extremely cautious about expressing underlying views,” Dorf said. “You can tell from his associations and the administrations for which he worked that he was part of a conservative legal movement, but he was the opposite of outspoken.”

Roberts has written the prevailing opinion in liberal victories such as the 2012 cases that upheld much of the Affordable Care Act; he also authored the opinion that blocked the Trump administration’s efforts to add a question about citizenship to the US census.

But he has also written opinions in cases viewed by progressives as major setbacks, including the 2013 decision that undid important provisions in the Voting Rights Act.

Trump has long chastised Roberts for being insufficiently conservative, haranguing him on Twitter and calling him a “nightmare” during his 2016 campaign. On Monday, conservative judicial advocates excoriated Roberts.

“He’s been a disappointment to pretty much everyone on the right at this point,” said Carrie Severino, president of the Judicial Crisis Network. She accused Roberts of “forming a pattern of decision-making that appears to be more tailored to avoiding political controversy on the court than actually coming to the correct legal result.”

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In a statement, the Trump campaign said the decision “underscores the importance of re-electing President Trump, who has a record of appointing conservative judges, rather than Joe Biden, who will appoint radical, activist judges who will legislate from the courts.”

The recent Supreme Court decisions could become a problem for Trump if they leave his supporters feeling let down — but he and other Republicans are trying to use them to motivate voters to reelect him, so he can pick more justices.

“Republican voters remain very motivated over the Supreme Court and rulings like today super-charge that motivation,” Andrew Hitt, chairman of the Republican state party in Wisconsin, said in a statement.

Democrats are also moving to seize on the court as motivation for voters to turn out for Biden as well as Democratic Senate candidates, warning that the court will become even more conservative if Trump is able to nominate a replacement for Ruth Bader Ginsburg, 87, a liberal justice who has weathered a series of health scares in recent years.

“We are winning these cases by the skin of our teeth and because Roberts fears for the Court’s legitimacy with the public. But the other four conservatives don’t and if Trump gets to add another justice, that person wont either. The Court’s future is hanging in the balance in 2020,” said Brian Fallon, the executive direct of the progressive group Demand Justice, on Twitter.

That may result in more pressure on Biden, especially from progressives, to say more about his plans for the Judiciary if he is elected. He has promised to put a black woman on the Supreme Court, but has not offered more detail than that.

“It would be really great for Biden to release a list of women, people of color, former public defenders, to really tell a story about what he thinks the federal bench should look like and the types of people he wants sitting on the bench,” said Meagan Hatcher-Mays, director of democracy policy for the grassroots group Indivisible Project.


Jess Bidgood can be reached at Jess.Bidgood@globe.com. Follow her on Twitter @jessbidgood. Reach Jazmine Ulloa at jazmine.ulloa@globe.com or on Twitter: @jazmineulloa

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Politics Podcast: Biden Is Currently Competitive In Georgia And Texas - FiveThirtyEight

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A slew of new, high-quality polls provides the clearest picture yet of the presidential race in swing states, and it isn’t looking good for President Trump. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses polling showing Joe Biden leading in every swing state and essentially tied in Georgia and Texas. They also look at how Republican politicians are responding to new outbreaks of COVID-19 across the Sun Belt.

You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes, the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen.

The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast publishes Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes. Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.

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Market is entering one of the year's toughest periods, CFRA's Sam Stovall warns - CNBC

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The next three months may be anything but calm.

CFRA's Sam Stovall warns the market is entering one of the toughest periods of the year. 

"The third quarter is by far the weakest of the four quarters of the year — gaining only 0.5% on average," the firm's chief investment strategist told CNBC's "Trading Nation" on Monday.

Stovall builds his case based on data going back to 1945. During the other quarters, he finds, the S&P 500 sees average returns of 2% to almost 4%. 

His analysis comes two days before 2020's second half begins and while coronavirus infections rise

"The biggest risk is the number of cases of the Covid virus spiking once again, because of the cascading effect that it would have on corporate profits and the uncertainty that it would present toward the election in November," Stovall said.

Despite 2020's unprecedented downturn, Stovall says he believes the weaker historical trend will apply this year, too. He contends the market pullback that began on June 8 hasn't ended yet.

"We've been stumbling along the way. We had a 7% pullback," he said. "Sometime in the third quarter we end up concluding this correction with a little deeper sell-off."

His S&P 500 level to watch is 2,850, which implies another 7% drop based on Monday's close.

But earnings season may buy investors some time.

According to Stovall, second-quarter earnings estimates are so low, they should beat the Street and serve as a short-term bullish driver. So, July may emerge as a stronger month for the market with August and September seeing the most trouble. 

Yet, his forecast isn't all doom and gloom.

Stovall expects the market and economy to successfully recover from the virus fallout and seasonal woes.

"Twelve months from now I think we're going to be in new high territory," Stovall said. "Once we do actually see the economy improve, once we do get justification of 2021 earnings projections for a 30%-plus advance in corporate profits, then I think the market will be able to work its way higher."

In a year, Stovall predicts, the S&P 500 will be at 3,435 — a 1% gain from the all-time high hit in February.

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The housing market is showing signs of a comeback - CNN

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An index measuring homes in contract to sell, or pending sales, jumped by a record 44% in May, according to the National Association of Realtors. This follows two months of steep declines.
The spike in May was the highest monthly gain since NAR began tracking in 2001, and it was an indication that demand for homes remains strong, the association said.
"This has been a spectacular recovery for contract signings, and goes to show the resiliency of American consumers and their evergreen desire for homeownership," said Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist. "This bounce back also speaks to how the housing sector could lead the way for a broader economic recovery."
The new rules of buying and selling a house in a coronavirus world
The number of pending home sales is considered a leading indicator of housing activity. Pending sales include signed real estate contracts for existing single-family homes, condos, and co-ops that have yet to close. Since there is typically a month or two lag between signing a contract on a property and closing the deal, the Pending Home Sales Index generally leads completed sales of existing homes by a month or two.
Pent up demand and the continuation of low interest rates are pulling buyers back into the market, said Joel Kan, the Mortgage Banker Association's associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting. "Even with high unemployment and economic uncertainty, the purchase market is strong."
Mortgage activity climbed above year-ago levels for five straight weeks, according to the MBA's recent weekly mortgage applications survey for the week ending June 19. But Kan cautions that high demand and low inventory may push prices higher.
"One factor that may potentially crimp growth in the months ahead is that the release of pent-up demand from earlier this spring is clashing with the tight supply of new and existing homes on the market," he said. "Additional housing inventory is needed to give buyers more options and to keep home prices from rising too fast."
But the pending sales show people are coming back into the market, even though many open houses are not being held and people are buying homes sight unseen.
"This move confirms that May closings could represent a low point for home sales, with June and July numbers looking much better," said Danielle Hale, Realtor.com's chief economist.
NYC home sales came to a halt this spring. But things are about to change
But possible coronavirus outbreaks in specific parts of the country may slow the recovery, she said.
"Emerging virus hotspots in the South and West could derail the improving trend," said Hale. "For now, demand remains resilient, but we're watching the new listings trend, as it's a good indicator of what's ahead for home sales."
Every region of the country registered the jump in month-over-month pending home sales transactions on the index. The West had the largest increase, up by 56% in May. The Northeast jumped by 44%, the South by 43% and the Midwest by 37%. All regions were down from a year ago, though, except the South which was up 2% from last year.
"The outlook has significantly improved as new home sales are expected to be higher this year than last, and annual existing home sales are now projected to be down by less than 10% -- even after missing the spring buying season due to the pandemic lockdown," Yun said.

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