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Though the broader cryptocurrency market was virtually flat Tuesday, nascent token Solana tacked on to an explosive rally, hitting a new all-time high above $130 thanks to growing investor fervor around the Ethereum competitor's platform, which also supports the smart contracts necessary for booming decentralized finance applications and non-fungible tokens.
The price of Solana soared nearly 30% to a high of $130.01 on Tuesday morning, lifting its seven-day gains to more than 67% and giving the token, which debuted only 18 months ago, a market capitalization of about $38 billion.
“Popular altcoin Solana has reaffirmed its status as an outlier in the market,” Jonas Luethy, a trader at London-based cryptocurrency broker GlobalBlock, wrote in a Monday email, noting Solana was by far the best-performing top-ten cryptocurrency over the past week.
Now the world’s eighth-largest cryptocurrency, Solana skyrocketed 10% Monday and has climbed a staggering 6,800% this year alone—eclipsing the gains of other top cryptocurrencies like bitcoin, ether and Cardano’s ada—up 63%, 372% and 1,160%, respectively.
Luethy pointed to the booming popularity of NFTs, the blockchain-based digital art collectibles increasingly gaining traction among celebrities, as the catalyst behind Solana’s rally.
According to Luethy, NFT sales in August have already hit a record of about $900 million, more than triple their previous best month in May.
Over the weekend, Solana hit another milestone: The value of decentralized finance projects—which have caught the eye of regulators—pinned to the token’s blockchain surpassed $3 billion for the first time ever, nearly tripling this month alone.
In a report on Monday, crypto investment firm CoinShares revealed investors have increasingly been selling off bitcoin funds, in favor of investments tied to other cryptocurrencies. For the first time ever, Solana funds led investment growth earlier this month, tacking on more than $7 million in the week ending August 20, compared to $3.2 million for Ethereum and a loss of $2.8 million for Bitcoin. Investment strategist James Butterfill noted Solano’s more flexible software and faster transaction speed, compared to larger rival Ethereum, has helped it gain traction among investors and software developers.
Solana’s stunning rally this past week has headlined growth among a slew of so-called altcoins, or cryptocurrency alternatives to market leaders bitcoin and ether. Solana’s support for smart contracts has helped it take advantage of the buzz around NFTs and DeFi, but other players have signaled plans to dive into the space as well, with Cardano, for example, planning to launch a software upgrade next month in order to begin processing smart contracts.
Regulation. Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler hasn’t been too keen on the growing popularity of DeFi, saying at a conference last month that the sector isn't immune to regulation. Last week, the agency signed a six-figure deal with blockchain analytics firm AnChain.AI to help it investigate DeFi transactions. “The SEC is very keen on understanding what is happening in the world of smart contract-based digital assets,” AnChain CEO and cofounder Victor Fang told Forbes.
Though its price has soared 255% over the past month, Solana plunged nearly 60% this summer as the broader cryptocurrency market crashed amid intensifying regulations in China.
Solana Hits New All-Time High Above $60 (Forbes)
SEC Signs Deal To Investigate DeFi Transactions (Forbes)
Solana Labs Announces $314 Million Fundraising Round (Forbes)
Simone Biles To Release Her First NFT Collection Tuesday, Cashing In On Booming Market (Forbes)
Stocks wrapped up one of their strongest Augusts ever on Tuesday, putting the S&P 500 on track for more closing highs in 2021 than any other year on record, but September—the weakest month for stocks historically—is likely to challenge the rally with ongoing concerns around the delta variant of Covid-19 and a highly anticipated Federal Reserve meeting that could spell out the end of pandemic-era monetary stimulus.
Boosted by gains in financials, travel and leisure stocks, the S&P 500 climbed 3% this month, despite ticking down 0.1% on Tuesday, and closed at record highs a total of 12 times—more than any other August in history.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq, meanwhile, was virtually flat near its Monday high and climbed about 4% in August, lifting its year-to-date return to about 20%, compared to 22% for the S&P.
"The incredible bull market continues," LPL Financial Chief Investment Strategist Ryan Detrick wrote in a Tuesday note, pointing out the S&P has hit 53 new all-time highs so far this year, topping a previous record from 1964.
Although the stock market has "laughed at nearly all the worry signs in 2021," Detrick cautions that the S&P has fallen an average of nearly 1% in September over the past 20 years, as fund managers typically cash out on underperforming stocks before the end of the third quarter.
"The market rarely stays quiet for this long," says Lindsey Bell, chief investment strategist at Ally Invest, adding sell-offs have been "so elusive" that the market's gone 10 months without a 5% drop in stocks, marking only the fifth time that's happened in 20 years.
Bell says the "biggest challenge" facing stocks this year could materialize at the Fed's committee meeting on September 22, when many economists believe the central bank will announce an end to its pandemic-era relief, particularly the $120 billion in monthly asset purchases that have propped up the economy—and stocks.
"While it hasn’t caused any big swings yet, the Fed’s plans may be tough to digest against a backdrop of rising Covid cases and slowing economic data," says Bell.
Though the spread of the delta variant of Covid-19 hasn't done much to rattle markets this summer, Detrick and Bell point to it as one of the biggest risks facing stocks in the fall, especially with consumers already concerned about it. Consumer confidence fell to a six-month low in August as concerns about the variant resulted in a less favorable view of current economic conditions, the Conference Board said Tuesday. Though consumers said they now plan to spend less for homes, autos and major appliances, it's too soon to conclude the dampened confidence will result in lower spending, the Conference Board's Lynn Franco said in a statement.
The S&P has rallied more than 100% since its pandemic low on March 23, 2020—the day Fed Chair Jerome Powell lifted markets by pledging to use the central bank's "full range of tools to support the U.S. economy" until "substantial further progress" is made toward a full economic recovery.
S&P 500, Nasdaq Surge To New Record Highs Again As Tech Stocks Lead Fed-Sparked Rally (Forbes)
After seven months of gains, stocks face plenty of potential risks that could make September live up to its reputation as the worst month of the year for the market.
According to CFRA, the S&P 500 has been positive just 45% of the time in September going back to World War II. The average 0.56% decline in the month is the worst of all months, with February the only other month with an average negative performance.
Strategists say it's not clear a correction or pullback is coming, but the risks have been rising. They include Federal Reserve policy changes, the spread of the Covid-19 delta variant and political risks.
Charles Schwab chief investment strategist Liz Ann Sonders said it's too simplistic to assume the market will follow history. "Are there a myriad of risks out there that at some point in time could be a risk factor that could lead to more than a 3% or 4% pullback? Absolutely," she said. "Could it be in September? Sure."
The decline is even worse in September when it falls in the first year of a presidential term. On average, the S&P 500 has declined 0.73% in those years. CFRA also found that in years where the S&P 500 set new highs in both July and August — like this year — the benchmark fell an average of 0.74% and rose only 43% of the time.
The S&P 500 rose nearly 3% in August and was closed out the final day of the month with a flattish performance. For the year, the S&P 500 is up 20.4%.
September has built-in calendar risks, including the upcoming August employment report Friday, which could determine how much the Fed will tip its hand at its Sept. 22 meeting on plans to cut back its bond buying program this year.
According to Dow Jones, economists expect 750,000 jobs were added in August. If the number is dramatically higher, market pros say they could see the Fed ramping up its plans to wind down the $120 billion a month bond buying program and possibly announce it in September. If the payrolls data is as expected or weaker, the Fed could delay its tapering for a few months.
Sonders said weaker data may not be negative for the market, since it could indicate the Fed would move more slowly to pare back the bond purchases. The gradual decrease of the bond purchases is seen as a precursor to an ultimate interest rate increase by the Fed, though Chairman Jerome Powell last week stressed the two were not linked.
Sonders said the Fed will rely on the incoming data in making its decision. That makes the course of Covid and its impact on the economy an important factor.
"The bottom line is sadly, the market is still at the mercy of this ... virus," Sonders said.
September has also been lauded as a month where Americans were supposed to feel a sense of normalcy, as children return to school in classrooms. Labor shortages have been expected to subside in September, as parents of school age children rejoin the work force and extended unemployment benefits expire.
The spread of the delta variant of Covid, however, has now created more uncertainty around the economy, as some companies push back reopening dates. Businesses from retailers to restaurants are seeing consumer traffic drop off in reaction to the spreading virus.
"Consumer confidence has already rolled over. It's less about what's the virus doing now. We all assumed things were going to be closer to normal in September," BITG head of equity and derivatives strategy Julian Emanuel.
Charles Schwab's Sonders said the focus on the Fed will be an overriding theme in September, but Covid is also a potential factor.
"I think the back-to-school component of this is more than just a potential needle mover," Sonders said. "It's whether we can stay in a general schools stay open without a much worse situation developing in some of the states where vaccination rates are lower. That's clearly a calendar specific Covid risk."
Emanuel said the market will be looking for the Fed to continue to push forward its plan to taper the bond purchases.
"This could be one of those ones by the time we get to the 22nd, the market may want the Fed to announce the tapering schedule because the implications of no announcement is this concern that they might know about the virus' impact on the broad economy and the labor market," he said.
Other risks in September could include inflation data. The consumer price index is slated for release Sept. 14. If data continues to run hot, Emanuel said that could push up Treasury yields, a negative for the market.
Emanuel said the market is also keeping an eye out on any discussion of when the U.S. will reach the debt ceiling, and it's also awaiting the fate of the multitrillion-dollar infrastructure bill, expected to be considered by Congress in September.
The U.S. exit from Afghanistan also hangs over the market as a risk factor. Final evacuation flights left Kabul on Monday. "The event has come and gone and the political fallout could be longer lasting, particularly if there are signs for greater instability in the region," Emanuel said.
Emanuel has been expecting a sizeable sell-off, and September and October are often choppy times.
"It doesn't mean the market is going to go down, but from our point of view there's a lot of complacency and belief that as long as the Fed isn't raising rates, the market cannot go down," he said.
He said investors should protect against a decline, and suggests using options.
"We're not saying you should be fearful," he said. "What we're saying is be prudent. You have fantastic gains in your portfolio."
Sonders said there have been major corrections in the market under the surface, even though some investors see the market as resilient because the major indexes have advanced to records. She said her biggest concern has been speculative froth.
"You've had rotational corrections and bear markets in areas like the meme stocks, SPACs and cryptos," she said.
Sonders said she maintains one outperform, and that is health care. She is looking more at factor-based investing than sector-based. She's looking for factors in individual stocks that reflect quality and is screening for things like stocks with strong free cash flow or earnings revisions.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will have his first visit to the White House on Wednesday, in a meeting Kyiv hopes will bolster security ties between the two countries, increase Ukraine’s position to join NATO and provide a platform to voice discontent about the Russia-to-Germany Nord Stream 2 pipeline.
The visit, for both Zelenskyy and US President Joe Biden, will also likely serve as a palate cleanser after the recently elected Ukrainian president found himself in a starring role in the 2019 impeachment investigation into former US President Donald Trump.
Trump was accused of conditioning military aid to Ukraine – and a White House visit – in exchange for Zelenskyy digging up dirt on Biden’s son’s role at the Ukrainian energy firm Burisma. The investigation indicated that Zelenskyy, a former comedian eager to display foreign policy clout, had resisted.
“This visit is important to Zelenskyy because Trump brought him into the domestic political debate, there has been some concern there could be tensions between the Ukrainian leader and the Biden administration,” Olexiy Haran, a professor of comparative politics at the University of Kyiv Mohyla Academy, told Al Jazeera.
“But that didn’t happen, because first of all, he resisted Trump’s pressure, and secondly, Biden and his people in the State Department understand the importance of Ukraine,” he said.
The visit came as the Ukrainian population has increasingly turned against Russia – and towards European integration – following Moscow’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and the Biden administration has sought to bolster transatlantic ties, particularly against Russia.
Wednesday’s meeting comes after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Kyiv in May, shortly after Biden pledged “unwavering support” for Ukraine amid a Russian troop build up along the country’s eastern Donbas region.
While Zelenskyy will likely seek agreements in security, space exploration, and support for Ukraine in light of the Nord Stream 2 project, the visit alone will likely “raise Zelenskyy’s profile within his country”, Haran added.
On Tuesday, Zelenskyy and his delegation were set to meet US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.
Hours earlier, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleb told The Associated Press news agency he was hopeful the US trip would “bring the strategic partnership between Ukraine and the United States to the next level”, adding that a push for a stronger US security assistance “will be absolutely crucial and absolutely central to all discussions”.
Despite a 2015 peace agreement brokered by France and Germany, there have been regular skirmishes between Ukrainian and Russian forces along the border. More than 14,000 people have been killed in the fighting since 2014.
Meanwhile, Yuriy Vitrenko, the head of Ukraine’s state-controlled Naftogaz oil and gas company, told The AP news agency that Zelenskyy would urge the US to place tougher sanctions on companies supporting the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which runs from Russia to Germany.
The US had opposed the pipeline, which critics argue would increase the Kremlin’s leverage over Europe, while depriving Ukraine of lucrative transit fees, before reversing its position in July.
While Germany has sought to allay Kyiv’s concern, Ukrainian officials have said they need more concrete steps taken.
“We’ll be very, very loud, because it’s a matter of national security for Ukraine, for the region, and we believe for the US, as well,” Vitrenko said.
The Biden administration is expected to continue to pressure Ukraine to address endemic corruption that has long plagued the government.
Last week, Human Rights Watch called on the US to link aid to human rights in Ukraine, with senior researcher Yulia Gorbunova calling for greater reforms to the Security Services of Ukraine, which has been accused of repeated abuses, calling for Zelenskyy to sign legislation that brings Ukraine’s legal framework in line with international standards on war crimes and crimes against humanity, and pressuring Ukrainian authorities not to “ignore or minimize the threat of violence by far-right nationalist groups”.
The White House has said the meeting will bolster the US’s “unwavering support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in the face of Russia’s ongoing aggression in the Donbas and Crimea, our close cooperation on energy security, and our backing for President Zelenskyy’s efforts to tackle corruption and implement a reform agenda based on our shared democratic values”.
Addressing corruption has long been a condition cited by the US and European powers for Ukraine to move towards further integration with Europe, including gaining long-sought admission to NATO.
During a NATO summit in June, Zelenskyy called on Biden to give a clear “yes” or “no” answer to Kyiv’s request for a Membership Action Plan – an official path to enter the alliance.
Biden responded that it was not yet clear if Ukraine had made enough progress in addressing corruption or meeting other criteria.
Still, many observers have noted that corruption is not the only concern for NATO, with members reluctant to put Ukraine on a pathway to joining when it remains engaged in a low-level hot conflict with Russia over Crimea and on its eastern border.
“That may seem unfair in Kyiv,” wrote Brookings Institution senior fellow Steven Pfifer last week, “but it is the reality.”
Here are the most important news, trends and analysis that investors need to start their trading day:
U.S. stock futures fell slightly Tuesday, on the last day of August, with the S&P 500 tracking for a seventh straight monthly gain, its longest monthly winning streak since December 2017. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq again closed at record highs Monday. The Dow fell slightly, sending the 30-stock average to just over 0.6% away from its latest record close earlier this month. The Dow and Nasdaq were also poised for solid gains for August.
Zoom Video Communications shares sank more than 14% in Tuesday's premarket, a drop that would wipe out 2021 gains and then some. While beating estimates with quarterly earnings and revenue, the stock was under pressure on slowing growth from the meteoric levels seen as the Covid pandemic began in 2020. Zoom also delivered forward guidance that basically matched estimates.
South Korea's parliament passed a bill Tuesday to curb the payment policies of Apple and Alphabet's Google that force developers to only use the tech giants' proprietary billing systems. The measure, when signed into law, will make South Korea the first country to go after major app store operators, which can charge commissions as high as 30% on in-app transactions. Regulators worldwide are focused on leveling the playing field, and analysts view the South Korea measure as a possible first step toward greater scrutiny from other countries.
President Joe Biden plans to address the nation Tuesday afternoon about his decision not to prolong the U.S. mission in Afghanistan. The U.S. has finished its evacuation efforts from Kabul's airport, effectively ending America's longest war. The nearly two-decade conflict began not long after the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. In the final weeks of the U.S. troop and diplomatic withdrawal from Afghanistan, the civil government fell to the Taliban. On Thursday, terrorists from the group ISIS-K killed 13 U.S. service members and dozens of Afghans in an attack outside the airport. U.S. forces retaliated and launched strikes.
Power outages from Hurricane Ida could take weeks to fix in some parts of Louisiana, according to officials. Ida ravaged the region's power grid, leaving the entire city of New Orleans and hundreds of thousands of other Louisiana customers in the dark. Power outages and widespread flooding slowed efforts Tuesday by energy companies to assess damages at oil production facilities, ports and refineries, many of which were shuttered ahead of the storm.
A wildfire swept toward Lake Tahoe on Tuesday, hours after the entire California resort city of South Lake Tahoe was ordered to evacuate. Communities just across the state line in Nevada were warned to get ready to leave. The threat of fire is so widespread in the region that the U.S. Forest Service announced Monday that all national forests in California would be closed until Sept. 17.
A CDC scientist said Monday the data needed to properly evaluate Covid vaccine boosters for the general population is limited — even as the president pressures health officials to clear the additional shots for wide distribution beginning the week of Sept. 20. The CDC emphasized that vaccinating the unvaccinated should be a "top priority," adding delivery of booster doses to vaccinated individuals should not deter outreach to those who remain unprotected from the virus. Biden said Friday that U.S. regulators are looking at administering Covid booster shots five months after people finish their primary immunizations.
— The Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report. Follow all the market action like a pro on CNBC Pro. Get the latest on the pandemic with CNBC's coronavirus coverage.
Despite advice to the contrary, some investors are prone to panic selling. They sell off a large portion of their risky assets when the stock market tanks.
In other words, they freak out.
Freaking out is not without benefits, according to the authors of a new paper, When Do Investors Freak Out? Machine Learning Predictions of Panic Selling. It can protect investors during a crisis.
But there is a downside: Investors who freak out often “wait too long to reinvest” and that causes them to “miss out on significant profits when markets rebound,” wrote the authors of the research, one of whom is Andrew Lo, a finance professor and director of the Laboratory for Financial Engineering at the MIT Sloan School of Management.
Who’s prone to freaking out?
According to Lo and his co-authors, here’s a demographic profile of investors who have a heightened tendency to make panic sales:
· those above the age of 45;
· investors who are married or divorced;
· males are slightly more likely than females to freak out;
· those who have dependents;
· those who say they have good or excellent investing experience; and
· those who list their occupation as self-employed, owners, and real estate.
So, what should those prone to this behavior do given the findings from this research? What can freak-outers do to avoid waiting too long to reinvest, which causes them to miss out on significant profits when markets rebound?
Lo, who is also co-author of In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio, offered the following suggestions:
How much can I afford to lose?
“Recognize that all of us, no matter how much or little training we have in investments, are capable of freaking out under certain conditions,” said Lo. “Therefore, we should prepare for those situations by asking ourselves, ‘How much does the stock market have to drop before I decide it’s time to sell some/all of my investments?’”
This type of what-if scenario planning, Los said, is best done when markets are calm so that we can think more rationally — as opposed to emotionally — about how we would like to respond to various types of financial distress.
When do I get back into the market?
Once you have a plan regarding the decision to reduce your risk, you then need to do the exact same scenario analysis for the opposite, said Lo. Ask yourself: “After I sell, how much does the market need to recover for me to decide to get back in?”
“Deciding on a plan to get back into the stock market is even more important than the decision to get out because once we get out of the market, it’s all too easy to think about other things and not watch the market as it recovers,” said Lo. “So, when we get out of the market, that’s the time to ‘increase’ our attention to our finances and make sure we don’t stay out too long.”
Others agree that having a plan is the right thing to do, but it’s perhaps easier said than done.
Some people who panic think they are being really smart and selling as a decline deepens thinking they will be able to get back in at a better price,” said Eben Burr, president of Toews Asset Management. “What (the research) shows is that those who do this do not have both a sell and buy discipline that they stick to, and has proven to work. It is easy to sell on the way down, but terrifying to buy at the right time. Others are taking profits from good buys they have made, but again do not have the discipline to repurchase.”
Spend more time managing your investments
Asking yourself about how much you can afford to lose and when to get back in the market implies that you have to spend more time managing your investments, said Lo.
And that’s just the reality of a more complicated financial world that we now live in. “It’s the same trend that we see in other fields, like medicine,” said Lo.
“Decades ago, the typical advice people received about their diet was ‘eat to your heart’s content,’ but today we have to worry about carbs, cholesterol, ketogenic diets, staying hydrated, and so on because we have more medical knowledge,” Lo said. “Similarly, we have to spend more time on our financial health because we now know more about volatility spikes, GameStop-like short squeezes, Fed interventions, and the like.”
Get help
For investors who simply don’t have the time or expertise to take on these challenges, working with a financial adviser may be a good alternative, said Lo.
“I would recommend a fee-only adviser so as to reduce the potential conflicts of interest, and even then, not all financial advisers are equipped to address the freak-out factor so it’s important to shop around and find someone that can address the emotional issues of investing as well as the rational,” he said.
Access, education and planning
There may be too much access to trading for our own good.
“For most people, it would be better to have a lobster trap account,” Burr said. “The money can go in, but can’t get out until it is needed.”
And in order for the lobster trap to work there needs to be a portfolio designed to have elements that will shine in different kinds of markets.
“One needs things that are designed to prosper in declining markets so that the emotional impulse to make changes is muted and the portfolio has less fluctuation over all markets,” said Burr, who noted Toews’ research that showed that only 10% of people would not give up some upside to not participate in all of the downside.
People also need to know the history of market declines. “They are usually followed by strong rebounds,” said Burr. “If they know that there is some part of the portfolio that is designed to prosper in a decline and the part that just got hit will likely participate more in the rebound then they may be more likely to be able to wait it out.”
And lastly, it’s important to have a plan that takes into account that historically there have been two 37% declines per decade on average.
“If we know that these emotionally and financially challenging events are going to occur, why not have a plan in place for when they hit,” said Burr.
Try to retrain one’s self to see it as a sale; know the history; know how one is likely to feel and engage in a little metacognition to see that the feeling may be out of line with the reality of investing history in spite of what your news provider is saying to sell advertising,” he said.
“Have a plan for what you are going to do when scary markets occur. Fire drills work.”
As several Republican-controlled states confront their worst outbreaks yet, their leaders — following the base — have doubled down on resisting vaccine and mask requirements.
As a new coronavirus wave accelerated by the Delta variant spreads across the United States, many Republican governors have taken sweeping action to combat what they see as an even more urgent danger posed by the pandemic: the threat to personal freedom.
In Florida, Ron DeSantis has prevented local governments and school districts from enacting mask mandates and battled in court over compliance. In Texas, Greg Abbott has followed a similar playbook, renewing an order last week to ban vaccine mandates.
And in South Dakota, Kristi Noem, who like Mr. DeSantis and Mr. Abbott is a potential 2024 candidate for president, has made her blanket opposition to lockdowns and mandates a key selling point. Arriving by horseback and carrying the American flag, she advertised the state’s recent Sturgis Motorcycle Rally, which drew half a million people, as a beacon of liberty.
Ms. Noem brushed aside criticism from Democrats and public health experts about the gathering, which was followed by a local Covid spike, saying on Fox News that the left was “accusing us of embracing death when we’re just allowing people to make personal choices.”
The actions of Republican governors, some of the leading stewards of the country’s response to the virus, reveal how the politics of the party’s base have hardened when it comes to curbing Covid. As some Republican-led states, including Florida, confront their most serious outbreaks yet, even rising death totals are being treated as less politically damaging than imposing coronavirus mandates of almost any stripe.
“Freedom is good policy and good politics,” Senator Ted Cruz, a Texas Republican and ally of Mr. Abbott’s who has introduced federal legislation to end mask decrees and to forbid federal vaccine passports, said in an interview.
Mr. DeSantis has become a symbolic face of the battle, as President Biden has urged Republican governors opposed to mandates to at least “get out of the way.” This week, Mr. DeSantis’s education commissioner withheld funds from two school districts that made masks mandatory.
Most top Republicans, including every Republican governor, have been vaccinated and have encouraged others to do so. But most have also stopped short of supporting inoculation requirements and have opposed masking requirements.
In many ways, Republican leaders are simply following Republican voters.
Skepticism about masks, vaccines and the rules governing them is increasingly intertwined with the cultural issues that dominate the modern Republican Party. The fear over losing “medical freedom” has become part of the broader worry that “cancel culture” is coming for conservatives’ way of life.
And while opposing pandemic edicts is a limited-government stance, the forceful approach of governors is at odds with the long-held principle of local control, making it the latest Republican Party orthodoxy to be cast aside since the beginning of the Trump era, along with free trade and limited spending.
The intensifying conservative mistrust of the news media and opposition to the directives of elite institutions and experts — Dr. Anthony S. Fauci is now so reviled by some that Mr. DeSantis sold merchandise saying “Don’t Fauci My Florida” — have cleaved the country into two factions guided by alternative sets of beliefs.
One outlier among Republican governors is Larry Hogan, a moderate who leads Democratic-dominated Maryland. He recently required that hospital and nursing home employees be vaccinated.
“Frankly, it’s confusing to me as to why some of my colleagues are mandating why you can’t wear masks, or mandating that businesses can’t make their own decisions about vaccines, or mandating that school systems can’t make decisions for themselves,” Mr. Hogan said in an interview. “And then they’re talking about freedom? It just doesn’t make sense to me.”
The pandemic, public health officials say, is now largely one of the unvaccinated, and the virus is raging particularly in conservative states with far lower inoculation rates and more relaxed attitudes toward group gatherings. Of the 10 states with the most cases per capita in recent days, nine voted Republican in last year’s presidential race and nine are led by Republican governors, according to The New York Times coronavirus database.
Republican leaders’ posture, particularly on keeping schools from requiring masks, does not appear popular across the wider electorate. In Florida, a Quinnipiac poll released last week found that 60 percent of residents supported compulsory masks in schools.
But among Republicans, that figure was inverted: 72 percent of Mr. DeSantis’s party said they opposed universal masking requirements in schools. The poll showed that a plurality of Republicans in the state also opposed a mask requirement for health care workers, a measure that is popular among independents.
“Many Republicans are out on an island by themselves,” said Whit Ayres, a veteran G.O.P. pollster. “It may be a safe political place for some primary electorates at the moment. But ultimately you have to win a general election.”
Governors nationwide almost uniformly reject the idea that political considerations have shaped their Covid policies. “Politics have played no role,” said Ian Fury, a spokesman for Ms. Noem.
The offices of Mr. DeSantis, Mr. Abbott, Ms. Noem and other Republican governors did not make them available for comment. But advisers to multiple Republican governors said the widespread distribution of vaccines had changed the governing calculus when it came to masks and shutdowns. Both Mr. DeSantis and Mr. Abbott have focused on opening antibody treatment sites for those who contract the virus.
As Florida became the first state to reach a new peak in deaths since vaccines became freely available, Mr. DeSantis has remained steadfast in keeping schools from requiring masks without a parental opt-out.
“We say unequivocally no to lockdowns, no to school closures, no to restrictions and no to mandates,” Mr. DeSantis said at a conservative conference in July.
These choices by governors carry a range of risks.
One Republican strategist privately lamented, only half-jokingly, that the party was going to kill off part of its own base with its vaccine hesitancy. Former President Donald J. Trump recently told donors at a New York Republican Party fund-raiser that he hoped his supporters would get vaccinated because “we need our people,” according to two attendees.
Even Mr. Trump is not immune from blowback, however. He received a rare rebuke from his base at an August rally in Alabama after he urged people to get vaccinated. “Take the vaccines,” he said. “I did it. It’s good.”
Some in the crowd began to jeer; Mr. Trump appeared to soften his stance.
“That’s OK, that’s all right,” he said. “You got your freedoms, but I happened to take the vaccine.”
Mr. Trump’s political operation has clearly assessed where his base stands. “FREEDOM PASSPORTS > VACCINE PASSPORTS,” read one recent fund-raising text, selling $45 American flag shirts that declare, “This is my freedom passport.”
In Arkansas, Gov. Asa Hutchinson, a Republican, saw his party’s pushback firsthand on a 16-stop tour to promote vaccination.
Mr. Hutchinson signed a law this spring banning mask mandates, but with cases rising again this month, he said he regretted it. In Siloam Springs, he was pelted with questions from frustrated constituents, including one woman who told him that she had been “praying that God himself will step in so that Christians are not forced by their employers and a mandate to get the vaccine.”
“Yet even if God does not, I will not bow,” she said to raucous cheers.
Then there is Ms. Noem, who last month accused other Republican governors of “pretending they didn’t shut down their states, that they didn’t close their regions, that they didn’t mandate masks.” The remarks were widely interpreted to be aimed at potential 2024 rivals.
Mr. Cruz, who ran for president in 2016 and could again in 2024, predicted a reckoning for politicians, including Republicans, who had embraced pandemic edicts. “There’s a range of politicians in terms of how long they shut things down,” he said. “In my view, the shorter the better. But that will certainly be a legitimate topic for discussion and debate.”
Mr. Ayres, the Republican pollster, said that governors trying to control the virus policies of schools, employers and local officials were breaking with years of tradition on free enterprise and local control.
“Liberty has never meant the freedom to threaten the health” of others, Mr. Ayres said. “That is a perversion of the definition of liberty and freedom.”
Some governors who imposed mandates and lockdowns last year have even been targeted by state legislators who want to trim their powers.
In Ohio, the G.O.P.-controlled Legislature overrode a veto by Gov. Mike DeWine, a fellow Republican, of legislation that reined in his administration’s emergency powers to manage the pandemic. After requiring masks to be worn last year in schools, he has not renewed the order this fall.
Mr. DeWine, who drew national attention for his fast and forceful response to Covid in early 2020, now faces a 2022 primary challenge from Jim Renacci, a former congressman. Mr. Renacci said the governor’s handling of the virus was “a big part” of his bid.
He said Mr. DeWine had now “gone quiet” on mandates because “he realizes what he did the first time did not make Republicans happy.”
A spokesman for Mr. DeWine said the need for mandates had changed since vaccines became freely available.
The most severe Covid outbreaks have been most concentrated in the South, and the Republican governors of Alabama and Mississippi have largely embraced the no-mandate ethos even as cases have climbed to new heights.
Gov. Tate Reeves of Mississippi renewed an emergency declaration in mid-August but set clear boundaries: “There will be no lockdowns and there will be no statewide mandates,” he said.
The same week, two field hospitals were installed in the parking lots of Mississippi medical centers.
Jennifer Medina contributed reporting.
Facebook plans to announce that it will de-emphasize political posts and current events content in the News Feed based on negative user feedback, Axios has learned. It also plans to expand tests to limit the amount of political content that people see in their News Feeds to more countries outside of the U.S.
Why it matters: The changes could reduce traffic to some news publishers, particularly companies that post a lot of political content.
Details: Moving forward, Facebook will expand some of its current News Feed tests that put less emphasis on certain engagement signals, like the probability that a user will share or comment on a post, in its ranking algorithm.
Between the lines: These efforts are part of a gradual effort by Facebook to make its users' experiences less political and contentious.
The big picture: Following the 2020 election, Facebook tried to limit the amount of political content users interact with on its platform, but it is still regularly criticized over the amount of political misinformation it distributes.
What to watch: Facebook plans to roll out these changes gradually, so as not to catch too many political and news publishers off guard. It's likely that it will expand its tests over time to more countries.
Go deeper:
Scott Recinos, a more than 15-year LMI veteran, has been elevated to the position of vice president for the homeland security market at the Tysons, Virginia-based management consultancy.
He will nurture client and partner relationships, identify customers’ emerging and current needs, come up with approaches to support the National Security Strategy and help facilitate the delivery of the company’s digital and analytic platforms, management advisory, logistics support and other service offerings across homeland security and intelligence markets, LMI said Monday.
Recinos previously served as director of LMI’s Department of Homeland Security for Customs and Border Protection initiatives.
He brings to the role over two decades of experience working with DHS, CBP, General Services Administration and other federal clients and more than 30 years of experience in civil engineering, border security, project and program management and construction management.
“Scott truly understands the needs of our CBP and DHS clients and knows how to support their missions proactively,” said Pete Pflugrath, senior vice president of markets and growth at LMI.
Recinos is a certified Program Management Professional and Project Management Professional.
In the midst of a pandemic that has strained all levels of government, the stock markets are doing really, really well — and that's helping the state's various pension plans.
The state has a series of pension plans for public employees. Each plan may differ depending on the job or the pension tier that controls how much a worker contributes to a future pension.
On July 1, the pension plans totaled $268 billion. It's made up of employer contributions, some employee contributions and very large stock market investments. The public employer contributions vary widely, usually because of the stock market.
Speaking recently to WBFO, state Comptroller Tom DiNapoli said income is rising while pension costs are rising.
"We had a record year, over 33% positive return. We've never had that kind of a return for the pension fund," he said. "But I try to remind everyone our goal is to keep the plan well-funded and our payouts are growing, because more people are retiring with higher pensions. People are living a lot longer, too. People living into their 90s. So there's a lot to balance."
For the 3,000 local governments in the plan, they will see a decrease in pension costs in the bills that arrive in the mail next year, which will show up in budgets and potentially in taxes. DiNapoli said the pension funds are more than 99% funded, above many other states.
Hamburg Supervisor Jim Shaw said around 9% of his town's budget goes for pension costs, from a general fund budget this year of $14 million. Shaw said cutting that cost is important in holding taxes down.
"The biggest challenge we have is to try and maintain a property tax rate on town taxes that people can afford," Shaw said. "The fact of the matter is we're undergoing some inflationary pressures. We're still coming off the most serious consequences associated with the pandemic."
Futures are edging down, putting the S&P 500 on course to hover near its record high. Here’s what we’re watching before Tuesday’s opening bell.
A teacher wearing a protective mask speaks to students using a Zoom Video Communications Inc. application at an elementary school in San Francisco, Oct. 5, 2020.
Photo: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg News
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A dicey situation reminiscent of the dot-com bubble may be unfolding on Wall Street.
According to BTIG's Julian Emanuel, the market's record price action is mimicking late 1999, and it could spark a 10% to 20% correction within the next month.
"Be very much aware of the fact that if and when it reverses, the consequences could be severe," the firm's chief equity and derivatives strategist told CNBC's "Trading Nation" on Monday.
On Monday, the S&P 500 saw its 53rd record close of the year and tech-heavy Nasdaq saw its 32nd. Meanwhile, the Dow is a fraction of one percent away from its record high.
"We're in a time where the impossible has really become commonplace," said Emanuel. "If we had said inflation would be at 30 year highs and [10-year Treasury Note] yields would be at 1.3% while the S&P would be at this level a year ago, no one would have believed you, me or anyone else."
Emanuel points out the record price momentum is so strong, it's overshadowing serious near-term risks associated with surging Covid-19 delta variant cases, higher inflation and what's next for Federal Reserve policy.
"The temptation may be to continue to go with it," he said. "This is a time to retain emotional control."
Emanuel believes euphoria could help drive the S&P 500 to 5,000, a more than 10% jump from Monday's close. However, he warns the move would add more near-term danger into the market.
"What we don't want is for people to get so overly committed in that race to 5,000 potentially that they become uncomfortable and overexposed to equities," he added.
Emanuel's pullback call, which dates to late Spring, is getting louder because he also sees the CBOE Volatility Index rising along with the S&P and Nasdaq.
"That's usually foretold of a pullback. That's what happened last September," noted Emanuel. "The other thing that concerns us is this plunge in consumer confidence that we've seen."
Emanuel, a long-term bull, suggests investors with a long time horizon should embrace market a setback.
"Be mentally prepared to buy down 10%, 15%, maybe even 20%, because the long-run trend is higher and pullbacks having been bought have been rewarded all along the line," Emanuel said. "We all know that September has a record of being a difficult month to navigate that ultimately yields to the buying opportunity in October."
Asian stocks look set for a steady open Tuesday as traders assess a technology-led rally in U.S. shares and the latest escalation in China’s regulatory crackdown on private enterprise.
Futures were steady for Japan and edged up for Australia and Hong Kong. U.S. contracts fluctuated after the S&P 500 notched its 12th all-time high in August and the Nasdaq 100 advanced. Apple Inc.’s market value scaled $2.5 trillion.
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