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Monday, September 5, 2022

Most Americans Think The U.S. Will Have More Political Violence And Be Less Of A Democracy, Poll Finds - Forbes

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Topline

A majority of Americans believe political violence in the U.S. will increase and that the country will be less of a democracy for future generations than it is now, a new CBS News poll finds, as most Americans see the U.S. as irreparably divided between political parties—though they denounce the violence themselves.

Key Facts

The poll, conducted August 29-31 among 2,085 U.S. adults, found 64% of respondents think political violence in the U.S. will increase over the next few years, up from 57% in December 2021 and 51% in January 2021.

That includes 72% of people who identify as liberal, 58% of moderates and 68% of conservatives, and respondents who voted for President Joe Biden or former President Donald Trump in 2020 were equally as likely to predict future violence (70% of each said it will increase).

A 54% majority said the U.S. will be “less of a democracy” for the next generation than it is now, while 27% say it will be the same as now and 19% predicted it will be more of a democracy.

Republicans were actually far more likely than Democrats to predict democracy would backslide, with 64% of Republicans and 71% of Trump voters believing it will be less of a democracy versus 44% of Democrats and 45% of Biden voters.

An 86% majority believe using force and violence is “always unacceptable” as a method to achieve political goals.

An 80% majority believe the U.S. is more divided today than it was during their parents’ generation and the same percentage feel the overall civility in American politics has gotten worse, and 67% are pessimistic that Americans with different political beliefs “can still come together and work out their differences.”

Surprising Fact

A 57% majority “strongly oppose” the U.S. being divided into two “red” and “blue” countries despite the nation’s political divisions and only 7% strongly favor it. Republicans were more likely to be open to breaking the country up, with 49% of Republicans and 48% of conservatives strongly opposing it versus 62% of liberals and Democrats.

Tangent

The poll was released days after Biden railed against “MAGA Republicans” who back Trump in a speech on September 1, saying they “represent an extremism that threatens the very foundations of our republic.” The CBS poll, conducted before Biden’s speech, found 19% self-identified as “part of the MAGA movement.”

Key Background

The CBS poll follows other polling suggesting political violence could be on the rise, with a survey released in July from the Violence Prevention Research Program finding 20.5% of respondents believed political violence was at least “sometimes justified.” In his speech on Thursday, Biden pointed to MAGA Republicans’ continued refusal to accept the 2020 election results and installation of election deniers into positions of power as a threat to democracy, arguing they view the 2020 election and the violence on January 6 “as preparation for the 2022 and 2024 elections.” A previous CBS News poll released over the weekend found most voters believe there will be issues with the next election that could harm democracy, with a 67% majority believing it’s at least somewhat likely election officials will refuse to certify results. Among Republicans, a majority had concerns about potential voter fraud or ineligible voters casting ballots, which may be driving their concerns about the future of democracy, though there is no evidence to support claims of widespread voter fraud in 2020 and election fraud is exceedingly rare.

Further Reading

Americans increasingly concerned about political violence — CBS News poll (CBS News)

Biden Castigates MAGA Republicans In Scathing Speech Against Trumpism (Forbes)

Survey Looks at Acceptance of Political Violence in U.S. (New York Times)

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Sunday, September 4, 2022

How Archives went from 'National Treasure' to political prey - Spectrum News NY1

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WASHINGTON (AP) — It was the setting for “National Treasure,” the movie in which Nicolas Cage's character tries to steal the Declaration of Independence. It has long been among the most trafficked tourist destinations in the nation's capital.

But what the National Archives and Records Administration has never been — until now — is the focus of a criminal investigation of a former president.


What You Need To Know

  • The National Archives and Records Administration is the focus of a criminal investigation of a former president

  • Those government workers operate out of the public eye, behind the marble façade of the Archives building in downtown Washington

  • A crucial component of the federal bureaucracy resides at the National Archives, with dozens of employees acting as the custodians of American history, preserving records that range from the mundane to the monumental

  • This serves as a closer look at the National Archives, its history and how it ended up in the middle of a political maelstrom

Yet that’s exactly where the agency finds itself after sending a referral to the FBI stating that 15 boxes recovered from former President Donald Trump’s Florida home in January contained dozens of documents with classified markings.

“I don’t think Donald Trump has politicized the National Archives," said Tim Naftali, the first director of the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum. “I think what Donald Trump did was cross red lines that civil servants had to respond to.”

Those government workers operate out of the public eye, behind the marble façade of the Archives building in downtown Washington. It's there, beyond the Hollywood plotlines, where a crucial component of the federal bureaucracy resides, with dozens of employees acting as the custodians of American history, preserving records that range from the mundane to the monumental.

A closer look at the National Archives, its history and how it ended up in the middle of a political maelstrom:

A MASSIVE COLLECTION

The mission of the National Archives, which was founded by Congress in 1934, sounds straightforward: to be the nation’s record-keeper. It's a daunting task that has only grown more complex over time.

While the Archives safeguards precious national documents such as the Declaration of Independence, the Constitution and the Bill of Rights, that's only the public face of their sprawling collection, which spans 13 billion pages of text and 10 million maps, charts and drawings, as well as tens of millions of photographs, films and other records.

In addition to its work in Washington, the Archives oversees 13 presidential libraries and 14 regional archives across the country.

___

ARCHIVIST FOR A NATION

The Archivist of the United States is responsible for running the agency. The last-Senate confirmed leader was David Ferriero, who stepped down in April after serving 12 years under three presidents.

Ferriero recalled in an April interview with The Washington Post how he watched from the windows of the Archives building on Jan. 6, 2021, as the crowd of Trump supporters marched past on their way to breach the Capitol. He called it the worst day of his life.

More than a year later he decided to retire, in part, because of fears about the nation's political trajectory.

“It’s important to me, that this administration replace me,” he told the Post. “I’m concerned about what’s going to happen in 2024. I don’t want it left to … the unknowns of the presidential election.”

His deputy, Debra Steidel Wall, is serving as the acting archivist while President Joe Biden's nominee, Colleen Joy Shogan, awaits a Senate confirmation process this fall. The archivist serves in the role until deciding to retire.

___

‘NO SUCH THINGS AS MEMENTOS’

The Archives serves as the final resting spot for the work of every White House.

After the Watergate scandal and Nixon's resignation, Congress passed a law in 1978 to ensure that all presidential records — written, electronic material created by the president, the vice president, or any other member of the executive branch in an official capacity — are preserved and turned over to the Archives at the end of an administration. The law states that a president's records are not his or her own, but are the property of the federal government and must be treated as such.

When a new administration begins, White House staff receive a brochure on the law and step-by-step instructions on how to preserve records. The preservation requirements cover a wide range of items, including presents and letters from foreign leaders. “There are no such things as mementos,” said Lee White, the executive director of the National Coalition for History.

In addition, the law requires that even while in office, the president or any member of that administration must first seek the advice of the archivist before destroying any record, a practice Trump and his aides reportedly ignored throughout his four years in office.

“Everything he writes down is essentially a presidential record. It's not his property,” White said. “It is so basic to the whole concept of why the Presidential Records Act was created.”

“At noon on Inauguration Day, the custody transfers to the archivist. Period. There is no maybe. It's the law,” he added.

___

AN UNPRECEDENTED DECISION

The rules of the Presidential Records Act are central to the FBI's investigation of Trump.

After Trump left office, the Archives discovered that records from his White House were missing. What followed was a yearlong back-and-forth between the Archives’ legal counsel and Trump’s lawyers that resulted in the voluntary return of 15 boxes of presidential records. Upon opening the boxes, the agency discovered that 14 of them contained classified documents and information.

Recognizing a potential crime, the agency made the unprecedented decision to refer the matter to the Justice Department. That move culminated in the search of Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in August. FBI agents recovered more than 100 classified records, including some that were stashed in the former president’s office among personal items.

Since the Aug. 8 search, the Archives and its employees have been bombarded with threats and accusations. The acting archivist in an email to the agency's staff noted their work is nonpartisan and urged them to hold steadfast to their mission.

“The National Archives has been the focus of intense scrutiny for months, this week especially, with many people ascribing political motivation to our actions,” Wall wrote in an Aug. 24 letter. “NARA has received messages from the public accusing us of corruption and conspiring against the former President, or congratulating NARA for 'bringing him down.'”

“Neither is accurate or welcome," she added.

Wall has worked for more than three decades at the Archives, starting as an archivist trainee and advancing to second in line. She said in her letter that despite the political storm surrounding the agency, staff must continue their work “without favor or fear, in the service of our democracy.”

___

AN ARCHIVIST CONFIRMATION BATTLE?

Five days before the Mar-a-Lago search, Biden announced he was nominating Shogan, an executive at the White House Historical Association who previously spent a decade working at the Library of Congress, as the next archivist.

Nominees for the post are typically confirmed without controversy or fanfare. But that's unlikely this time.

Shogan faces a charged confirmation process as Republicans demand answers about the Justice Department's investigation and the Archives' role in facilitating it. A confirmation hearing this fall has not yet been scheduled but could end up being unusually contentious.

Republicans in the House and Senate have pushed for more information about how the Archives made the decision to refer Trump’s case to federal investigators.

Rep. James Comer of Kentucky, the top Republican on the House Oversight and Reform Committee, sent a letter Thursday demanding that the Archives' watchdog provide documents and communications about the case.

"Transparency is particularly important in the post-pandemic era when Americans are lacking trust in our institutions,” Comer wrote.

So far, the National Archives has denied requests from both Democrats and Republicans on the committees that oversee the agency, instead referring them to the Justice Department where the investigation is now unfolding.

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Networks snub airing Biden's 'political' primetime speech, citing Trump criticism - Washington Times

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The nation’s top TV networks declined to air President Biden‘s Thursday address to the nation, deeming it too political ahead of the midterms. 

During Mr. Biden‘s primetime speech on restoring democratic norms, NBC and CBS aired reruns of “Law & Order” and “Young Sheldon,” respectively, while ABC ran its “Press Your Luck” game show. Fox News Channel, meanwhile, opted to stick with its regularly slotted opinion show hosted by Tucker Carlson.

Those involved with negotiations on airing the president’s speech refused to do so because the remarks were “political.” Those, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, told The Washington Post, that they feared criticism of former President Donald Trump, who may run again in 2024.

Executives also noted the close timing ahead of the November midterms.

This is not the first time networks have snubbed a presidential speech. 

TV networks have typically not aired speeches that are part of campaign rallies or that aren’t considered newsworthy.

In 2014, the networks did not carry a speech by former President Barack Obama regarding immigration reform.

Mr. Biden‘s primetime remarks were also unusual for an evening address to the nation, which is typically only done so during a national emergency or crisis.

For example, Mr. Trump made an address in 2020 during the first coronavirus outbreak, after it was declared a global health emergency by the World Health Organization.

Mr. Obama delivered a primetime speech in 2014 on how the United States planned to tackle the growing threat of the Islamic State.

Mr. Biden focused his remarks on the need to eradicate rightwing extremism, which he credited for the 2021 Capitol riot and dismantling U.S democracy. He attacked the Make America Great Again, or MAGA, movement aligned with Mr. Trump.

“MAGA Republicans do not respect the Constitution,” Mr. Biden said. “They do not believe in the rule of law. They do not recognize the will of the people. They refused to acknowledge a free election.”

Mr. Trump called Mr. Biden‘s speech “angry and awkward,” and accused him of threatening America.

“Someone should explain to Joe Biden, slowly but passionately, that MAGA means, as powerfully as mere words can get, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! If he doesn’t want to Make America Great Again, which through words, action, and thought, he doesn’t then he certainly should not be representing the United States of America,” Mr. Trump wrote on his social media platform, TruthSocial.

The White House refuted claims that the speech was overly political, telling NBC News that it was “not a speech about a particular politician or even about a particular political party.”

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Saturday, September 3, 2022

Pennsylvania Stakes Its Claim as Center of the Political Universe - The New York Times

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WILKES-BARRE, Pa. — Pennsylvania, the site of crucial victories and devastating defeats for both political parties in recent elections, has emerged as the nation’s center of political gravity and its ultimate battleground as peak campaign season arrives.

Perhaps no other state features as many high-stakes, competitive races, each pulsing with political currents shaping midterm campaigns across the country. The open race for governor between a right-wing political outsider and a veteran of the Democratic establishment may determine both the future of abortion rights and of free and fair elections in a large presidential swing state.

The personality-driven, increasingly ugly Senate contest — shaped by clashes over celebrity and elitism, crime and crudités, and a candidate’s health — could decide control of the chamber.

And in races up and down the ballot, Pennsylvania is poised to test whether the political realignment of the Trump era can hold, after the moderate Philadelphia suburbs overwhelmingly rejected the former president’s brand of politics, while many white working-class voters abandoned the Democrats to embrace him.

It’s no surprise, then, that President Biden, whose 2020 success in Pennsylvania propelled him to the White House, delivered two speeches in the state this week, lashing Trumpism as an urgent threat to the nation in Philadelphia and also speaking in Wilkes-Barre, a northeastern city in politically competitive Luzerne County. He is expected in Pittsburgh on Monday for a Labor Day appearance.

Former President Donald J. Trump, who in 2016 became the first Republican presidential nominee to win Pennsylvania in nearly three decades, is also kicking off the unofficial start to the general election in the state. He’s scheduled to appear in the Wilkes-Barre area on Saturday for a rally with Republican candidates. It is his first major public appearance since the F.B.I. searched his Palm Beach, Fla., home.

Mark Moran/The Citizens' Voice, via Associated Press

“It’s always a heavily contested state in presidential elections as well as statewide elections, and this year, we happen to have two of the biggest races in the country,” said Senator Bob Casey, Democrat of Pennsylvania. “The nation’s watching to see what will happen.”

In a sprawling, politically complex place where voters historically have often elevated consensus-minded statewide candidates, state Attorney General Josh Shapiro, a Democrat, is running for governor against State Senator Doug Mastriano, the right-wing, election-denying Republican nominee who strenuously opposes abortion rights.

The Senate race has pitted Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, a shorts-wearing, social media-savvy official who is recovering from a stroke, against Dr. Mehmet Oz, the celebrity television physician.

The Democratic candidates have led in fund-raising and the polls. But party and campaign officials expect both races to tighten, given the closely divided nature of the state.

That may especially be the case in the Senate race, as a flood of money from national groups comes in to support Dr. Oz (Mr. Fetterman has benefited from outside spending too), and as voters think about political control of Washington, beyond their attitudes toward individual candidates. Many voters remain furious about the cost of living, and are inclined to take it out on the party in power.

“Have you gone food shopping lately? Have you filled your car with gas?” said Sue Sullivan, 61, in an interview on Biden Street in Scranton, Pa., the city of the president’s birth. “Nothing is going well.”

Ms. Sullivan, a Republican from Garnet Valley, Pa., said she was unenthusiastic about the Republican nominees but intended to back them anyway.

“With the way the country’s going, I would probably vote for a Republican I didn’t like versus voting for a Democrat that I did like,” she said.

As of Friday, the average gas price in Pennsylvania was $4.04 a gallon, according to AAA — less than the average a month ago, but still more than the $3.29 of a year ago. The state’s unemployment rate in July was 4.3 percent, higher than the national rate but slightly lower than that of states including New York.

There are signs of an improving political environment for Democrats.

Outrage over the overturning of Roe v. Wade has helped them close a once-yawning enthusiasm gap. While Mr. Biden has suffered months of abysmal approval ratings, his numbers are ticking up. Mr. Trump, who has strongly unfavorable ratings, has re-emerged in the headlines thanks to the F.B.I. effort to retrieve classified documents from his home. And in several key Senate races, Republican candidates have stumbled.

Jeff Swensen for The New York Times

In Pennsylvania, where Mr. Fetterman has a strong personal brand, the Democrat has used his prolific social media presence to cast Dr. Oz as an out-of-touch carpetbagger more at home in New Jersey, which had been his longtime principal residence, than in Pennsylvania, where he says he now lives. Mr. Fetterman has maintained a light public schedule since his stroke in May, but he has kept up an active presence on the airwaves, and there are signs that the messaging has resonated.

“Fetterman is like for the working man,” said Robert Thompson, 63, a retired firefighter and passionate defender of Mr. Biden’s, in an interview this week across the street from the office of the Republican Party of Luzerne County. “Dr. Oz, that’s Mr. Hollywood.”

Dr. Oz is trying to paint Mr. Fetterman as a far-left Democrat who is soft on crime. Mr. Fetterman has released his own ad stressing his public safety bona fides, a sign that the issue has the potential to become a flash point in the race.

Matt Freed/Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, via Associated Press

The Republican Dr. Oz, trained as a heart surgeon, and his campaign, have begun to mock Mr. Fetterman over the pace of his recovery, offering pointed debate “concessions,” like a promise to pay for additional medical personnel. A spokeswoman said that if Mr. Fetterman “had ever eaten a vegetable in his life, then maybe he wouldn’t have had a major stroke.”

In an interview on MSNBC this week, Mr. Fetterman — who has said that he almost died — blasted the Oz campaign for appealing “to folks that get their jollies, you know, making fun of the stroke dude.”

“I might miss a word every now and then, or I might mush two words together,” he said, but stressed that he was expected to make a full recovery.

Mr. Fetterman is still using closed captions for interviews and other business conducted by video, his spokesman, Joe Calvello, confirmed, saying that it “helps him keep conversations moving fast.” A number of Democrats have argued that his health scare is a relatable episode for many voters.

But his decision to decline a debate next week has brought questions about his health back into public focus.

Jeff Swensen for The New York Times

“Mr. Fetterman has to show a presence so that he can show people that he’s healthy and he’s able to fill that position without a health issue,” said Mayor George C. Brown of Wilkes-Barre, adding that he expected Mr. Fetterman, whom he supports, would do so more visibly as the race unfolds. “Come out, do some rallies, talk to people.”

“Unfortunately, the way that some of this campaigning is going, it shows that there’s an issue with Mr. Fetterman’s health, and I can’t say that, because I’ve never really spoken to the man,” he added in a Wednesday interview.

Mr. Calvello, the Fetterman spokesman, said that the candidate was pursuing an increasingly busy campaign schedule, though he stopped short of committing to debating.

“John has been and will continue to be open about his health and his struggles with auditory processing,” Mr. Calvello said. “He is going to be doing more and more events and will continue to draw large crowds.”

Mr. Fetterman is planning a “Women for Fetterman” rally in the Philadelphia suburbs for next Sunday — which is Sept. 11 — focused on abortion rights.

After the overturning of Roe vs. Wade, which handed control over abortion rights back to the states, the matter has become a top-tier issue in major races, including in Pennsylvania. The state has a Republican-led legislature and Mr. Shapiro has cast himself as a bulwark against any effort to enact the kind of bans that have taken hold in other states.

Sean Simmers/The Patriot-News, via Associated Press

Abortion has a been major focus in the governor’s race as Mr. Shapiro works to brand Mr. Mastriano as far too extreme for the state. Mr. Shapiro has so far spent $18 million on television advertising this year, his campaign said, with plans for a significant fall advertising campaign.

Mr. Mastriano’s campaign, which rarely engages with mainstream media outlets, did not respond to a request for comment. As of Thursday, Mr. Mastriano had not been on the airwaves in the general election, according to AdImpact. The Republican Governors Association has also not yet reserved airtime to boost Mr. Mastriano.

A growing number of Republicans have announced their support for Mr. Shapiro, with some citing their concerns about Mr. Mastriano’s efforts to spread lies about the 2020 election and warning of the threat they believe he poses to a state that is home to the birthplace of American democracy.

Kriston Jae Bethel for The New York Times
Maddie McGarvey for The New York Times

But for all of Mr. Mastriano’s structural challenges, and scrutiny over incidents like his appearance in a Confederate uniform or backing from an antisemitic ally, the race may wind up being highly competitive.

“The real professionals know it’s going to be very tough,” Shanin Specter, a Philadelphia lawyer and son of the late Senator Arlen Specter, said. Mr. Shapiro, he said, was meeting the race with appropriate seriousness. But he warned that some live in an “echo chamber” and believe “Shapiro couldn’t possibly lose. And they’re just dead wrong.”

Mr. Casey, the senator, suggested that Mr. Mastriano’s ascent in the Republican Party indicated that “few, if any” of the state’s successful former Republican governors would have won the nomination today.

Indeed, the G.O.P. has been increasingly remade in the image of Mr. Trump, who will rally Saturday in a county that he flipped in 2016.

Pennsylvania “plays an important part in both the former president’s history and narrative as well as the current president’s,” said David Urban, a Republican strategist who helped run Mr. Trump’s Pennsylvania operation in 2016.

Nodding to the possibility that both Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump may seek the presidency in 2024, he added, “Past may be prologue here. You may see both the former president and the current president duking it out in Pennsylvania again.”

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Thursday, September 1, 2022

Politics Podcast: Why Sarah Palin Lost - FiveThirtyEight

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Democrat and former state Rep. Mary Peltola won Alaska’s special congressional election on Wednesday, defeating Republicans Sarah Palin and Nick Begich III. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich discusses why it is difficult to draw a broader conclusion about the political environment based on the result. Later, senior politics reporter Monica Potts joins to discuss why voters sometimes contradict their partisan beliefs when it comes to voting on ballot measures.

You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes, the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen.

The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes. Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.

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Cook Political Report moves five House races toward Democrats - The Hill

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The nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report on Thursday shifted its forecasts for five competitive House races in favor of Democrats.

The changes follow a spike in Democratic voter enthusiasm following the Supreme Court’s decision in June that overturned the landmark federal abortion rights protections in Roe v. Wade, Cook Political Report senior editor Dave Wasserman wrote. Democrats have outperformed expectations in every special election since the ruling.

They also also come as Republicans, some of whom predicted a potentially record “red wave” election year, have tempered expectations about the midterm elections this year.

Last week, a separate Cook Political Report analysis said Republicans still look like the favorites to win control of the House in the midterm elections. But the publication revised its forecast down from Republicans winning 15 to 30 seats to winning 10 to 20 seats.

The five House districts Cook shifted on Thursday are:

Alaska’s at-large district, from likely Republican to toss-up

L:

Mary Peltola; R: Sarah Palin. Image Credit: The Associated Press.

The change comes after former Republican Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin lost a special election to Democrat Mary Peltola in the state’s first election using a new ranked choice voting system.

It was the first time a Democrat had been elected to the seat since 1971.

Peltola and Palin, as well as Republican Nick Begich and Libertarian Chris Bye, will be on the general election ranked choice ballot in November for a full term in the same seat.

Arizona’s 4th District, from lean Democratic to likely Democratic.

L: Greg Stanton; R: Kelly Cooper.

Image Credit: AP/ Kelly Cooper Campaign.

Democratic Rep. Greg Stanton will face Republican Kelly Cooper, a Marine veteran who was endorsed by Arizona GOP gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake.

Wasserman writes that, “Cooper, a Marine veteran who owns BKD’s Backyard sports bar and has questioned the integrity of the 2020 election, might be too far right for this left-trending, Biden +10 Tempe seat.”

Maryland’s 6th District, from lean Democratic to likely Democratic.

L: David Trone; R: Neil Parrott. Image Credit: Rep Trone’s office/ The Associated Press.

Democratic Rep. David Trone, founder of Total Wine & More, has pumped his campaign with $10 million after his panhandle district became less Democratic due to redistricting. He faces Republican state Del. Neil Parrott.

“Any Republican scenario for ousting Trone likely involved a Larry Hogan-esque performance in the governor’s race at the top of the ticket. But that went out the window when state Del. Dan Cox, whom Hogan has called ‘not, in my opinion, mentally stable,’ won the GOP primary,” Wasserman wrote.

New York’s 3rd District, from toss-up to lean Democratic.

In the open Long Island seat being vacated by Rep. Tom Suozzi (D), who unsuccessfully ran for governor, Democratic National Committee member Rob Zimmerman will face Republican George Santos.

Virginia’s 7th District, from toss-up to lean Democratic.

L:

Abigail Spanberger; R: Yesli Vega. Image Credit: The Associated Press.

Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) will face Republican former police officer Yesli Vega for the suburban Northern Virginia seat.

Spanberger has long been considered one of the more vulnerable Democrats in the House, and this year’s redistricting process shifted her seat away from the areas where she had the strongest support.

But an

audio recording reported by Axios in which Vega expresses openness to the idea that it might be harder for women to get pregnant after rape, remarks that came just as the abortion issue was heating up, was thought to be a major help to Spanberger, who also holds a large financial edge. 

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Sarah Palin loses bid for political comeback in Congress - Financial Times

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Sarah Palin has failed in her attempt at an audacious political comeback after losing a special election for Alaska’s only seat in the House of Representatives to Democrat Mary Peltola.

Peltola beat Palin, a Republican, by 51 per cent to 49 per cent in an election to fill a seat left vacant by the death of longtime representative Don Young, according to results released by Alaska on Wednesday.

Peltola will hold the seat for only about three months before having to contest it again in the midterm elections. But her victory is a blow for Palin — one of the most recognisable figures on the right of the Republican party — as well as another sign that the Democrats may fare better in November than many expected.

Palin declared her candidacy for the open congressional seat this year, following 13 years out of elected office. She first burst on to the national and international political stage in 2008, when, while serving as Alaska’s governor, she was chosen as John McCain’s vice-presidential running mate. McCain lost that year’s presidential election, and Palin was blamed for having helped tarnish his reputation as a centrist.

She was widely mocked during the 2008 campaign for statements such as telling an interviewer that she had an insight into Russian politics because “you can actually see Russia from land here in Alaska”. McCain later said his choice of running mate had been “a mistake”.

Palin’s candidacy had also heralded the Republican party’s broader shift to the right. In recent years, she has been a vociferous champion of Donald Trump, who supported her during the campaign, calling her a “wonderful patriot”. Palin resigned as Alaska’s governor in 2009 after a series of ethics scandals.

Many factors had pointed in Palin’s favour in the congressional race. She spent four times as much as her Democratic rival in a state that Trump won in 2020 by 10 percentage points. She had huge national name recognition and was enthusiastically endorsed by Trump.

But Peltola, who will become the first Native Alaskan to serve in Congress, was able to win with a campaign that focused heavily on her pro-choice and pro-union positions.

The result comes a week after Democratic candidate Pat Ryan won an unexpected victory in a separate special congressional election in a New York district widely seen as a toss-up after a campaign focusing on abortion rights.

Democrats across the country have enjoyed a surge in donations and support after the US Supreme Court this year overturned Roe vs Wade, which established constitutional protections for abortion.

The party had looked set for a historic defeat in November’s midterms earlier this year. But recent polls suggest they might hold on to power in the Senate and even the House, boosted by legislative successes by President Joe Biden, the divisive return of Trump to the national political stage and the renewed prominence of the right over abortion rights.

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