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Sunday, May 22, 2022

'This conversation has really started to dominate on politics up and down the ballot': How abortion rights has become the center of two Texas runoff races - CNN

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(CNN)Six weeks postpartum, Rochelle Garza was on the frontlines of an abortion rights rally in Dallas.

"I will be damned if my daughter grows up in a state where she cannot control her own body," the Democratic candidate for Texas attorney general said into a megaphone.
Abortion rights had already been top of mind for Texas Democrats during the state's March 1 primary elections, as Democratic candidates and political operatives pointed to the Lone Star State's controversial six-week abortion ban as a warning sign for what life could look like in a post-Roe America.
But, two months later, the issue became much more pressing: a Supreme Court draft majority opinion that would overturn the landmark Roe v. Wade decision had been leaked.
"I know that everyone is angry. We should be angry because this is an attack on our health care. Because abortion is health care. Reproductive freedom is a human right," Garza said on May 3.
In the weeks since then, abortion rights has become even more central to two key Texas runoff primaries. Voting will end in those races on Tuesday.
In the runoff for the Democratic nomination for state attorney general, Garza, a civil rights attorney who previously won a case granting a detained 17-year-old immigrant the right to an abortion, is facing off against former Galveston mayor and trial attorney Joe Jaworski, who is also pro-abortion rights but lacks the same backing of abortion rights groups that Garza has.
"Women and all people who care about equal rights, even if they're not women, should be angry, alarmed and motivated," Jaworski said in an interview with CNN Friday. "Reproductive choice, at least protected by the federal constitution, is over, and this ought to be a wake-up call, a motivating call for voters, whether you're a woman or not."
The issue has also come to the forefront of the blockbuster Democratic primary runoff for Texas's 28th Congressional District, where Jessica Cisneros, a 28-year-old immigration attorney, is facing Rep. Henry Cuellar. Cuellar, a political institution in South Texas, is the last remaining anti-abortion rights House Democrat and was the only member of his party in the lower chamber last fall to vote against the Women's Health Protection Act, which would codify abortion rights even if the Supreme Court reverses Roe v. Wade.
Jamarr Brown, co-executive director of the Texas Democratic Party, told CNN that after the leak of the Supreme Court draft opinion, the party will be "following the primary runoff results to see if there are any indicators of this issue moving the electorate."
"This issue is a reminder of what is at stake in this election -- that we must fight extremism by Republicans in Texas and across the country when they attack our fundamental freedoms," Brown said.

Cisneros prioritizes abortion in South Texas

Days after the Supreme Court draft decision was leaked, Cisneros posted a video on Twitter asking Democratic leadership to retract their support for Cuellar.
"At every turn, my congressman has stood in opposition to the Democratic Party agenda. From being anti-union to being anti-choice and with the House majority on the line, Cuellar could very much be the deciding vote on the future of reproductive rights in this country and we just cannot afford that risk," she said.
Asked during a press conference earlier this month about her support for Cuellar, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi doubled down on her backing of the incumbent congressman, saying that while Cuellar is an abortion rights opponent, the Democratic Party was able to pass the Women's Health Protection Act without his vote.
"I'm supporting Henry Cuellar. He's a valued member of our caucus," Pelosi said at a May 12 press conference, adding later, "He is not pro choice, but we didn't need him."
Cuellar is also backed by House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn, the No. 3 Democrat in the House, who stumped for Cuellar in San Antonio, Texas, the same day Cisneros released her statement asking for party leadership to reconsider their stance.
For months, Cisneros has been talking about the differentiation between her and Cuellar when it comes to abortion rights.
"He doubled down on his anti-choice stance and said abortion wasn't health care. This is why I'm running, because our community deserves someone who will always fight tooth and nail for our health care," Cisneros previously told CNN in a statement.
Cuellar, according to the Laredo Morning Times, said in a Zoom event last year that he had backed "millions of dollars on health care for women," but that abortion was "not a health issue."
"For me," Cisneros said, "knowing how many people are being affected and have lost their right to health care, you just can't be a bystander."
"As a lifelong Catholic, I have always been pro-life. As a Catholic, I do not support abortion, however, we cannot have an outright ban. There must be exceptions in the case of rape, incest and danger to the life of the mother," Cuellar said in a statement after the draft opinion leaked.
"Additionally, my faith does not allow me to support extreme positions such as late term or partial birth abortions. My faith is clear: abortion must be rare & safe," Cuellar said.
CNN reached out to Cuellar's campaign and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee but did not immediately receive a response for comment.

Both Texas Democratic attorney general candidates vow to not criminalize abortion seekers or providers

Both Garza and Jaworski told CNN that if elected, they would not criminalize women for seeking an abortion or abortion providers.
"My commitment is to fighting for everyone's constitutional right and being the people's attorney and looking out for the people, and that does include making sure that we do not criminalize women or providers or anyone for making a healthy decision. I make that commitment that I am not going to criminalize anyone or force criminality for someone making a decision for themselves," Garza said in an interview Thursday.
Likewise, asked if he would criminalize people who sought an abortion or abortion providers in the state, Jaworski said, "I would not."
He added that he does not think prosecuting abortion is within the purview of the state's attorney general.
"In fact, I don't think it would be the Texas attorney general's province to initiate prosecution, even if I felt like doing it, which I don't," Jaworski said Friday, adding that he believes the decision will come down to "local decision making authority."
As an attorney in private practice, Garza -- who previously told CNN her candidacy for attorney general was in part inspired by Texas' six-week abortion ban -- fought in court against Texas Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton's efforts to insert himself in a case to help the Trump administration prevent her client, a detained 17-year-old immigrant, from accessing an abortion. Garza and the ACLU won that case.
"This is what we need in the office. Somebody who practices what they preach. I'm a civil rights lawyer," she said.
For his part, Jaworski told CNN he is uniquely positioned to serve as attorney general because of his litigation experience. But Jaworski has never previously fought for abortion in court.
"I've not had occasion to fight for reproductive choice in court, but I have had two major victories on difficult cases," Jaworski said, detailing cases regarding workers' rights and public housing in the state of Texas.
Jaworski told CNN that he believes the issue of reproductive rights in Texas must be looked at from an equal rights perspective and could come down to the equal protection clause of the Texas constitution.
He added that the fight for reproductive rights in Texas will require a sincere commitment to voting rights as well, in part due to Texans role in voting for state Supreme Court justices.
The Democratic nominee will take on the victor of the Republican primary race. Paxton, who won reelection by under 4 percentage points in 2018, is seeking a third term this year and has a primary runoff of his own against George P. Bush to get through on Tuesday. Texans haven't elected a Democrat to a statewide office since 1994.

National and local abortion rights groups weigh-in

The high-profile races have attracted the attention of national and local organizations, many of whom advocate for abortion rights.
Both Cisneros and Garza are supported by EMILY's List, the influential Democratic political committee that backs pro- abortion rights women for public office.
For its part, EMILY's List's independent expenditure arm "WOMEN VOTE!" has put out mailers, television ads and digital ads for Cisneros ahead of the runoff, Christina Reynolds, vice president of communications for EMILY's List, told CNN.
While Reynolds noted the group's concerted push for Cisneros, she highlighted the work of the organization to support Cisneros during both of the past two cycles. EMILY's List also backed Cisneros in 2020, when she challenged Cuellar for the first time.
Asked about whether or not the leaked Supreme Court draft opinion has changed the stakes of the race in Texas' 28th congressional district, "It's not a new issue here. It potentially makes it more real that this is going to happen," Reynolds told CNN, referring to the possibility of a post-Roe America.
"Both [Cisneros and Garza] talked about [abortion] beforehand, before the decision, and continue to talk about and raise with voters since the draft opinion leaked," she said.
Additionally, Cisneros is backed by Planned Parenthood Action Fund, while Garza has the support of by Planned Parenthood Texas Votes, the local wing of the national abortion rights advocacy group.
Dyana Limon-Mercado, executive director of Planned Parenthood Texas Votes emphasized that throughout the state, more Texans are talking about the need for abortion rights.
"We know a majority of Americans already believe that Roe should stay in place and abortion should continue to be legal, even among Catholic voters, Hispanic voters, women of all socioeconomic backgrounds," she said.
"Now, what I think you see, is more different types of voters talking about it. Maybe people who their number one issue maybe has been education or the economy and other stuff like that, this conversation has really started to dominate on politics up and down the ballot."
Ana Ramon, who is the interim executive director of Annie's List, a Texas-based group that backs progressive, pro-abortion rights women at the state level, told CNN that across the state, voters are emphasizing abortion rights as a top issue.
"We have definitely heard of interesting conversations at the doors. It's more on the grassroots level where people are talking to our endorsed candidates about abortion and access," Ramon said.
"Everything is at stake, people's lives are at stake. We know that women and Texas families, they are more likely to die of gynecological cancers, gynecological disease, if they don't have access to the resources and services they need," she said. "This is no longer about policies it's about people."

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Social media: Did the pandemic poison online politics? - BBC

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Social media use exploded during the coronavirus pandemic - has this had a lasting impact on politics in the UK?

Before the coronavirus pandemic, there was an epidemic of anxiety about social media's supposedly destructive effect on political debate.

Vicious Twitter spats, pile-ons, misinformation and "filter bubbles" - where people shut out any news sources they are likely to disagree with - were seen as threats to civilised discourse.

Some research suggests things have only got worse since we were all forced to stay at home during lockdown. A few academics have tried to make the counter argument, highlighting social media's role in democratising knowledge about Covid-19.

What do those at the sharp end think?

Iain Dale, a Conservative author and broadcaster, was a pioneering political blogger who did as much as anyone to get Westminster online, but he has long been concerned about the tone of debate on social media.

At time of writing, the LBC Radio presenter has 243,600 followers on Twitter, but he says: "If I wasn't doing the job that I do, I think I would come off it".

"There's no attempt to even understand that somebody else has another point of view" online, he says, "it's just got worse and worse with every passing year".

Iain Dale
BBC News

Up to the 1990s, he says, the only way the average person could express their views was through letters to the local paper, but then "blogs came along, they were free to use, easy to set up... if you give good people the opportunity to have their say, you also give evil people the opportunity to have their say".

Mr Dale started his own blog in 2003, which quickly became a must-read for the political classes before he switched his attention to his nightly phone-in show.

Before the pandemic, he says, "you had Brexit and before that there were plenty of other things that got people going. I'm not actually sure that the pandemic was actually worse than Brexit. Points in Brexit, whatever side you were on, it was impossible to have reasoned debate".

"If I never have to do another Covid or Brexit phone-in again, I should be very happy, I actively now go looking for things that are in the news that are not necessarily political".

Ayesha Hazarika and Nigel Farage

Ayesha Hazarika is a broadcaster on Times Radio and a former Labour Party adviser. At time of writing, she has 93,800 followers on Twitter. She thinks the pandemic "probably exacerbated" abusive online discourse, although "it was like a massive cesspit before".

During the pandemic "we were all completely glued to our phones, we were lonely, and I think social media provided a sense of kinship and tribe for people".

"I think my engagement with online politics definitely became more pronounced during the pandemic," she says, citing Dominic Cummings' infamous visit to Barnard Castle as a moment when politics "collided" with social media.

"People who were probably just genuinely angry about something, but would have gone on with their every day lives, were now really angry but had four hours a day to just vent".

She also criticises "performative tweeting, performative piling on and performative outrage".

"People always hunt in a pack on social media" to find something that is a topic of the day and feel as though they have to "rush in and join in and give that person a kicking, that was something I definitely noticed as a trend".

"Covid kind of became the new Brexit," she adds, "suddenly you had to fight to the death over masks, and you couldn't take a nuanced position, it had to either be that this was the biggest affront to civil liberties ever, or if you didn't want to wear a mask then you were sort of a murderer".

She says it used to be viewed as "ignoble" for those in the public eye to block others on Twitter, but at this point, if someone is "repeatedly harassing you, then there's no shame in blocking people".

To those who are inclined to try and tweet an MP to change their mind, she says "a lot of people that have real power just will not engage with it".

Woman using a laptop computer
PA Media

Enabling everyone with access to a smart phone or a computer to publish their opinions has undoubtedly transformed politics.

But the debate about whether social media is good or bad for democracy can feel increasingly irrelevant, because it is here to stay.

It is also worth reminding those who spend their days arguing about politics on Twitter and Facebook, that they are in the minority.

"We really need to remember that [online] doesn't represent the mass public," says Rasmus Nielsen, Director of the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism.

In the UK, the number of people existing solely in just tiny political echo chambers online are "not nothing, but the figures are smaller than you might think".

The estimate, he says, "is that 5% of UK internet users are in a left wing echo chamber, and 2% in a right wing echo chamber," but he says this has to be put in the context that "26% of internet users in the UK have not accessed any online news at all in the past week".

It's "only human" for journalists, politicians and those in media to see extreme negative reactions to their posts online and for this to "colour your perception of the whole world the same way".

So did the extra time we all spent online during the pandemic - on Zoom calls, streaming services and social media - change the way we think about politics?

There is little conclusive research on the subject so far, but the National Centre for Social Research has examined whether the British public's political attitudes were transformed by the pandemic.

The answer, according to their February 2022 report, is not as much as some had predicted.

One of the researchers, Prof Sir John Curtice, also the BBC's elections expert, said: "It looks as though the landscape of public opinion that policymakers will face after the pandemic will be much the same as the one that they faced beforehand, including not least on the perennial debate about what to do about inequality."

Being stuck at home may have affected the online abuse and anger received by people, like so many other areas of our lives. It may, of course, take years to find out the lasting impact on society of what took place in the lockdowns of 2020 and 2021.

You could tell me what you think of this article, I'm on Twitter as @rwmorris. Civilised discourse only please.

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Saturday, May 21, 2022

How the new House districts alter upstate politics - Spectrum News

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Finalized congressional districts by a court-appointed special master released shortly after midnight on Saturday will alter upstate New York politics for the next decade that could maintain competitive congressional races for years to come. 

The maps released by Carnegie Mellon University expert Jonathan Cervas for New York's U.S. House and state Senate races come as the state's redistricting process this year has been upended by a court challenge that rejected the lawmaker-drawn districts earlier this year. 

In a court filing, Cervas wrote his districts will split only 16 counties in New York as opposed to 34 counties split by the lines drawn by lawmakers. He also estimates eight of these U.S. House seats in New York will be competitive districts compared to three contested seats drawn by the Legislature. 

Upstate New York has already been home to multiple competitive House seats over the last decade. Democrats had hoped New York could be a state in which the party is able to maintain control of the narrowly divided U.S. House of Representatives this year ahead of what's expected to be a good political environment for Republicans. 

Photo: Special Master Jonathan Cervas

A Republican-backed lawsuit had challenged the lawmaker-drawn lines. On Saturday, former Rep. John Faso called the new lines fair.

“The congressional and state senate districts created by the Special Master and ordered by the Court maximize political competition and honor the desires of the People as evidenced by their strong approval of the 2014 constitutional amendment on redistricting," said Faso, who had advised the Republican-allied suit.

Cervas' maps will stretch the district of Democratic Rep. Paul Tonko to include all of Saratoga County, which is currently split with Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik. That district will include Capital Region cities Albany, Schenectady and Troy. 

Stefanik will largely maintain a sprawling North Country House seat that encompasses most of the Adirondack Park and parts of the Mohawk Valley. 

In central New York, Syracuse and Utica will be drawn into the same U.S. House seat. A Hudson Valley congressional seat, the 19th district, will stretch from the Catskills to heavily Democratic Tompkins County. 

The 24th congressional seat will stretch from the Thousand Islands region to areas south of Rochester to the Lake Ontario shoreline. And the 23rd district will include parts of western New York south of Buffalo and the Southern Tier. 

Already the changes have scrambled some House races. Hudson Valley Rep. Mondaire Jones on Saturday announced he would run for the increasingly crowded 10th congressional district in New York City after he was initially drawn into a seat with Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney. 

Republican Rep. Claudia Tenney announced she would run for the 24th congressional district, noting that it includes areas she currently represents in the House. 

Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro, meanwhile, is set to run for the newly drawn 19th district. Molinaro had initially challenged Democratic incumbent Antonio Delgado for his Hudson Valley House seat. But Delgado is set to become the next lieutenant governor following the resignation of Brian Benjamin.

Delgado's pending resignation from Congress will trigger a special election likely to be held on Aug. 23. Molinaro and Ulster County Executive Pat Ryan are expected to compete for the 19th district under its current configuration. 

New York's congressional and state Senate primaries will be held on Aug. 23 as a result of the delayed map approval. State lawmakers took control of the map drawing process this year after a commission created by a voter-approved constitutional amendment failed to reach an agreement on new district lines. 

The state is losing a House seat because its population did not grow as fast as other areas of the country. 

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For notable Oregon political candidates and donors, big spending yielded tiny results - OregonLive

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Carrick Flynn, who left Oregon after college and has primarily lived overseas, returned to his home state in 2020. He ran for Oregon's new congressional seat in the Democratic primary, but lost despite more than $10 million in spending by outside groups trying to get him elected.Courtesy of the Flynn campaign

This year’s Oregon primary featured many big-spending campaigns that went down to defeat, none more so than that of Carrick Flynn, a first-time Democratic candidate running for Congress.

Flynn benefitted from more than $14 million spent to elect him – but finished with just 18% of the vote.

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Friday, May 20, 2022

Oz-McCormick race in Pa. still unresolved as other tests of Trump's influence loom - The Washington Post

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Today, the Associated Press declared that the Pennsylvania GOP Senate race between celebrity physician Mehmet Oz and hedge-fund CEO David McCormick is too close to call. The secretary of state has until May 26 to order a recount that would begin no later than June 1.

View live politics updates

Other tests of Donald Trump’s influence loom next week, including in Georgia, where polls show his preferred choice for governor, David Perdue, badly trailing incumbent Brian Kemp in the GOP primary. Also on the ballot on Tuesday: Brad Raffensperger, the Georgia secretary of state who resisted Trump’s urging to “find” votes in the 2020 presidential election. Trump is backing a challenger.

Also Friday, two Post exclusive stories offer further insight into the conservative efforts to contest the results of the 2020 election and find ways to keep Trump in power.

In one of those stories, emails obtained by The Post revealed that conservative activist Virginia “Ginni” Thomas, wife of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, pressed Arizona lawmakers days after the election to set aside Joe Biden’s popular-vote victory and choose “a clean slate of Electors.” In her communications, Ginni Thomas falsely argued that legislators needed to intervene because the vote had been marred by fraud.

Meanwhile, new documents revealed that Larry Ellison, the billionaire co-founder and chairman of the software company Oracle, participated in a call shortly after the election to discuss strategies for contesting Trump’s loss in the race. Ellison, one of the main backers of fellow billionaire Elon Musk’s takeover of Twitter, was on the call with Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.) and other conservative figures, including Fox News host Sean Hannity. His participation marks the first known example of a technology industry titan joining powerful conservative figures to strategize about Trump’s post-loss options.

Meanwhile, Biden is in South Korea on Friday in the first visit to Asia of his presidency.

Your daily dashboard

  • 6:15 a.m. Eastern: Biden and South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol delivered remarks in Pyeongtaek, South Korea. Watch here.
  • 11 a.m. Eastern: Attorney General Merrick Garland made an announcement regarding hate crimes. Watch here.
  • 3:40 p.m. Eastern: Vice President Harris discusses funding in the bipartisan infrastructure law for energy-efficient school buses. Watch live here.

Got a question about politics? Submit it here. At 3 p.m. weekdays, return to this space and we’ll address what’s on the mind of readers.

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Thursday, May 19, 2022

Politics Podcast: What Tuesday’s Primaries Could Mean For November - FiveThirtyEight

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In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew reacts to the outcome of Tuesday’s primaries in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Kentucky, Idaho and Oregon. The results were mixed in terms of which factions in both parties did well. The marquee Republican Senate race in Pennsylvania is still too close to call, and at least two Trump endorsees lost: North Carolina Rep. Madison Cawthorn and Idaho Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachin.

You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes, the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen.

The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes. Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.

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Wednesday, May 18, 2022

Opinion | Voters are finally seeing how political the Supreme Court really is - The Washington Post

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Things are getting intense over at the Supreme Court, to the evident consternation of the conservative justices. When the leak of a draft opinion that would overturn Roe v. Wade unleashed public anger, Justice Clarence Thomas warned darkly that if the public allowed itself to believe the court was getting politicized, civil breakdown would soon follow.

But here’s the reality: The Supreme Court has been extremely political for a long time. What has the justices upset is that the public may be finally getting wise to that fact.

New polls underscore the point. A survey just released by Quinnipiac University finds that 63 percent of Americans believe the Supreme Court is mainly motivated by politics, while only 32 percent think it’s mainly motivated by law. Perhaps as a result, 69 percent say the justices should be term limited.

This comes after a recent Yahoo News/YouGov poll found that 74 percent of respondents said the court had become “too politicized.” Confidence in the court has fallen by almost 20 percentage points since 2020.

Now imagine how public sentiment might be affected if and when the court strikes down Roe. The Quinnipiac poll finds that 65 percent agree with Roe; surely such a move would drag perceptions of the court further into the political mud.

In another reflection of how this could shift our politics, a coalition of state-based pro-choice groups will come out on Thursday in support for Supreme Court expansion. Whatever you think of this goal, it’s obvious that groups working with people directly affected by court decisions are set to intensify pressure on Democrats to fight a lot harder over the court’s future makeup.

Simply put, it’s becoming even more of a zone of political combat. As Jamison Foser, a progressive strategist and adviser to Take Back the Court, the group organizing the push, told us, the announcement will reflect “a growing recognition of the need to rebalance the Supreme Court and disempower the court’s right-wing majority.”

“Without doing so, everything from abortion and voting rights to environmental protections is likely to be struck down,” Foser said.

An interesting fact about the new polling is that it shows broad public support for doing something in response to the politicization of the court. The Quinnipiac poll, for instance, finds that 69 percent of Americans favor limiting the years that justices serve on the Supreme Court, while 27 percent oppose it.

This makes sense in ways that are perhaps not obvious. The public’s belief that the court is infected by politics may reflect an intuition that the stakes have grown way too high in the battles over each new justice. Term limits might address that: While they’re a terrible idea for elected officials, for justices they could make the conflicts over filling vacancies less apocalyptic.

One of the most common proposals along these lines is to have justices serve staggered 18-year terms. That’s still quite a long time, but not so long that presidents would feel it necessary to find the youngest like-minded nominees possible to sway the court over generations.

In that system, the president would appoint two justices every term, no more and no less. It wouldn’t make confirmations free of politics, but at least it would make each confirmation less spectacularly consequential.

And adopting a system like this would acknowledge what everyone knows by now: The protestations and playacting meant to convince us that the justices have no biases or policy preferences were always ridiculous.

Such a structure would essentially admit that every president will be trying to turn the court toward their party’s preferences (while of course selecting nominees who are strong on the law and well qualified for the high court) and would seek to manage this in a fair way.

Now that the public may be realizing that the court will to some degree be a zone of political contestation, perhaps we can have a real debate about what a better system might look like.

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