Argentina's political outsider, Javier Milei, proposes radical economic reforms but faces obstacles in implementing them.
Javier Milei has been at the heart of every discussion on the Argentine elections over the past six months. Whether you are a supporter, critic, or casual observer, Milei has managed to be in the spotlight like a rockstar from the 1970s, a callback to his days as the frontman of a Rolling Stones cover band. A political outsider who describes himself as an “anarcho-capitalist”, Milei greets crowds by wielding a chainsaw – a metaphor for the radical cuts he proposes – and is described by one newspaper as a “South American fusion of Elvis Presley and the adamantium-clawed mutant Wolverine”. Not surprisingly, Milei became the poster child for change in an economically devastated Argentina where inflation reached 138% this year.
Yet, the tenacity that accompanied Milei’s story in the run-up to the elections on October 22 fell flat as the results poured in, showing Milei in second place to the incumbent economy minister Sergio Massa, who oversaw Argentina’s recent economic downturn. It seems there is some credence to the proverb “better the devil you know than the devil you don’t”, as Argentines gave Massa a considerable lead with 36.6% of the vote to Milei’s 29.9%. Both candidates will now compete in a run-off election on November 19. Nonetheless, a six-point lead in the first round does not guarantee Massa a win in the second round.
Massa belongs to the Peronist camp, synonymous with Juan Domingo Perón, a former Argentine general and president whose ideology has determined the fate of Argentine politics since the 1950s. As of 2023, Peronists have held the presidency for 36 years. Given its long history, Peronism is an amorphous ideology. In the 1990s, Peronists like Carlos Menem passionately implemented Right-wing, free-market policies in the form of the Washington Consensus. Today, Peronism is firmly defined as Left-wing. Tomorrow, Massa could steer it closer to the centre. Massa has crafted a distinct identity as a moderate, portraying himself as the safer choice.
His message to voters is clear: Things may be bad, but they can get a lot worse if Milei is allowed to experiment on Argentina. This message resonates with Argentines who have seen far tougher times, including military dictatorships and an era of 5,000% hyperinflation.
Milei’s story is far from over. According to Benjamin Gedan, director of the Woodrow Wilson Center’s Latin America Program and its Argentina Project, Milei remains the frontrunner. “Sunday’s (October 22) results revealed anxiety about Milei’s radical economic programme and discomfort with his conservative social agenda. Still, voters overwhelmingly opted for Opposition candidates. It will be difficult for the economy minister to overcome those obstacles”. Milei’s proposals are as radical as his rockstar and chainsaw-man image. He proposes to shut the Central Bank, dollarise the economy, legalise the sale of human organs, liberalise gun ownership, cut pensions, and privatise State companies. If elected, Milei will find it difficult to follow through on these promises – if at all he means to. He will encounter significant opposition in a Congress where his party has limited seats, and also in the influential Buenos Aires province, which remains in the hands of now two-time governor Axel Kicillof, a Peronist.
If elected, will Milei be a far-Right populist, or a more moderate, libertarian economist? The honest answer is that no one knows, but Argentines may just be prepared to jump into the unknown and find out. If Massa wins, we can expect some continuity in his economic reforms, as well as a more moderate, centrist approach to solving the country’s economic crises.
Milei’s story is not unique to Argentina. Practically every Latin American nation has seen its own version of a political outsider ready to shake up the establishment. Since Latin America’s return to democracy in the 1990s, there have been 25 “outsider” candidates who have either won the presidency or come in second place, beginning with Peru’s Alberto Fujimori in 1990. The recently held elections in Ecuador and Guatemala also saw outsiders come to the presidency, in the form of 35-year-old business magnate Daniel Noboa in Ecuador and the diplomat-scholar Bernardo Arévalo in Guatemala. These outsiders benefit from another trend in the region – anti-incumbency. In the past 20 free and fair elections in the region, incumbent governments have lost in all of them, except in Paraguay.
Although Argentina is nearly 15,000 kms from India, it remains an important partner for New Delhi. Both countries elevated diplomatic relations to the level of a “strategic partnership” in 2019. Argentina is also part of multilateral forums like G20. After all, India’s imports from Argentina are even more than imports from neighbouring Bangladesh or European partners like Spain. Who knows, one day political outsiders in India may take lessons from Argentina’s Milei or Guatemala’s Arévalo.
Hari Seshasayee is an Asia-Latin America expert at the United Nations Development Programme and a visiting fellow at the Observer Research Foundation. The views expressed are personal
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